Global carbon budget 2019

Pierre Friedlingstein*, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Dorothee C.E. Bakker, Josep G. Canadell1, Philippe Ciais1, Robert B. Jackson, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Vladislav Bastrikov, Meike Becker, Laurent Bopp & 56 others Erik Buitenhuis, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Kim I. Currie, Richard A. Feely, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Nicolas Gruber, Sören Gutekunst, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Jed O. Kaplan, Etsushi Kato, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E.M.S. Nabel, Shin Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Anna Peregon, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Roland Séférian, Jörg Schwinger, Naomi Smith, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. Van Der Werf, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Sönke Zaehle

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere-the "global carbon budget"-is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2009-2018), EFF was 9:5±0:5 GtC yr-1, ELUC 1:5±0:7 GtC yr-1, GATM 4:9±0:02 GtC yr-1 (2:3±0:01 ppm yr-1), SOCEAN 2:5±0:6 GtC yr-1, and SLAND 3:2±0:6 GtC yr-1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.4 GtC yr-1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2018 alone, the growth in EFF was about 2.1% and fossil emissions increased to 10:0±0:5 GtC yr-1, reaching 10 GtC yr-1 for the first time in history, ELUC was 1:5±0:7 GtC yr-1, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11:5±0:9 GtC yr-1 (42:5±3:3 GtCO2). Also for 2018, GATM was 5:1±0:2 GtC yr-1 (2:4±0:1 ppm yr-1), SOCEAN was 2:6±0:6 GtC yr-1, and SLAND was 3:5±0:7 GtC yr-1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 407:38±0:1 ppm averaged over 2018. For 2019, preliminary data for the first 6-10 months indicate a reduced growth in EFF of C0:6% (range of.0:2% to 1.5 %) based on national emissions projections for China, the USA, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. Overall, the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959-2018, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr-1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018a, b, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013). The data generated by this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2019 (Friedlingstein et al., 2019).

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1783-1838
Number of pages56
JournalEarth System Science Data
Volume11
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 4 Dec 2019

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carbon budget
land use change
carbon cycle
ocean
biosphere
fossil
atmosphere
Gross Domestic Product
environmental policy
deforestation
cement
carbon dioxide
land use
climate change
methodology

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Friedlingstein, P., Jones, M. W., O'Sullivan, M., Andrew, R. M., Hauck, J., Peters, G. P., ... Zaehle, S. (2019). Global carbon budget 2019. Earth System Science Data, 11(4), 1783-1838. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019
Friedlingstein, Pierre ; Jones, Matthew W. ; O'Sullivan, Michael ; Andrew, Robbie M. ; Hauck, Judith ; Peters, Glen P. ; Peters, Wouter ; Pongratz, Julia ; Sitch, Stephen ; Le Quéré, Corinne ; Bakker, Dorothee C.E. ; Canadell1, Josep G. ; Ciais1, Philippe ; Jackson, Robert B. ; Anthoni, Peter ; Barbero, Leticia ; Bastos, Ana ; Bastrikov, Vladislav ; Becker, Meike ; Bopp, Laurent ; Buitenhuis, Erik ; Chandra, Naveen ; Chevallier, Frédéric ; Chini, Louise P. ; Currie, Kim I. ; Feely, Richard A. ; Gehlen, Marion ; Gilfillan, Dennis ; Gkritzalis, Thanos ; Goll, Daniel S. ; Gruber, Nicolas ; Gutekunst, Sören ; Harris, Ian ; Haverd, Vanessa ; Houghton, Richard A. ; Hurtt, George ; Ilyina, Tatiana ; Jain, Atul K. ; Joetzjer, Emilie ; Kaplan, Jed O. ; Kato, Etsushi ; Goldewijk, Kees Klein ; Korsbakken, Jan Ivar ; Landschützer, Peter ; Lauvset, Siv K. ; Lefèvre, Nathalie ; Lenton, Andrew ; Lienert, Sebastian ; Lombardozzi, Danica ; Marland, Gregg ; McGuire, Patrick C. ; Melton, Joe R. ; Metzl, Nicolas ; Munro, David R. ; Nabel, Julia E.M.S. ; Nakaoka, Shin Ichiro ; Neill, Craig ; Omar, Abdirahman M. ; Ono, Tsuneo ; Peregon, Anna ; Pierrot, Denis ; Poulter, Benjamin ; Rehder, Gregor ; Resplandy, Laure ; Robertson, Eddy ; Rödenbeck, Christian ; Séférian, Roland ; Schwinger, Jörg ; Smith, Naomi ; Tans, Pieter P. ; Tian, Hanqin ; Tilbrook, Bronte ; Tubiello, Francesco N. ; Van Der Werf, Guido R. ; Wiltshire, Andrew J. ; Zaehle, Sönke. / Global carbon budget 2019. In: Earth System Science Data. 2019 ; Vol. 11, No. 4. pp. 1783-1838.
@article{71100661b9cb46d8b7823b7405ee92cb,
title = "Global carbon budget 2019",
abstract = "Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere-the {"}global carbon budget{"}-is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2009-2018), EFF was 9:5±0:5 GtC yr-1, ELUC 1:5±0:7 GtC yr-1, GATM 4:9±0:02 GtC yr-1 (2:3±0:01 ppm yr-1), SOCEAN 2:5±0:6 GtC yr-1, and SLAND 3:2±0:6 GtC yr-1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.4 GtC yr-1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2018 alone, the growth in EFF was about 2.1{\%} and fossil emissions increased to 10:0±0:5 GtC yr-1, reaching 10 GtC yr-1 for the first time in history, ELUC was 1:5±0:7 GtC yr-1, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11:5±0:9 GtC yr-1 (42:5±3:3 GtCO2). Also for 2018, GATM was 5:1±0:2 GtC yr-1 (2:4±0:1 ppm yr-1), SOCEAN was 2:6±0:6 GtC yr-1, and SLAND was 3:5±0:7 GtC yr-1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 407:38±0:1 ppm averaged over 2018. For 2019, preliminary data for the first 6-10 months indicate a reduced growth in EFF of C0:6{\%} (range of.0:2{\%} to 1.5 {\%}) based on national emissions projections for China, the USA, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. Overall, the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959-2018, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr-1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Qu{\'e}r{\'e} et al., 2018a, b, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013). The data generated by this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2019 (Friedlingstein et al., 2019).",
author = "Pierre Friedlingstein and Jones, {Matthew W.} and Michael O'Sullivan and Andrew, {Robbie M.} and Judith Hauck and Peters, {Glen P.} and Wouter Peters and Julia Pongratz and Stephen Sitch and {Le Qu{\'e}r{\'e}}, Corinne and Bakker, {Dorothee C.E.} and Canadell1, {Josep G.} and Philippe Ciais1 and Jackson, {Robert B.} and Peter Anthoni and Leticia Barbero and Ana Bastos and Vladislav Bastrikov and Meike Becker and Laurent Bopp and Erik Buitenhuis and Naveen Chandra and Fr{\'e}d{\'e}ric Chevallier and Chini, {Louise P.} and Currie, {Kim I.} and Feely, {Richard A.} and Marion Gehlen and Dennis Gilfillan and Thanos Gkritzalis and Goll, {Daniel S.} and Nicolas Gruber and S{\"o}ren Gutekunst and Ian Harris and Vanessa Haverd and Houghton, {Richard A.} and George Hurtt and Tatiana Ilyina and Jain, {Atul K.} and Emilie Joetzjer and Kaplan, {Jed O.} and Etsushi Kato and Goldewijk, {Kees Klein} and Korsbakken, {Jan Ivar} and Peter Landsch{\"u}tzer and Lauvset, {Siv K.} and Nathalie Lef{\`e}vre and Andrew Lenton and Sebastian Lienert and Danica Lombardozzi and Gregg Marland and McGuire, {Patrick C.} and Melton, {Joe R.} and Nicolas Metzl and Munro, {David R.} and Nabel, {Julia E.M.S.} and Nakaoka, {Shin Ichiro} and Craig Neill and Omar, {Abdirahman M.} and Tsuneo Ono and Anna Peregon and Denis Pierrot and Benjamin Poulter and Gregor Rehder and Laure Resplandy and Eddy Robertson and Christian R{\"o}denbeck and Roland S{\'e}f{\'e}rian and J{\"o}rg Schwinger and Naomi Smith and Tans, {Pieter P.} and Hanqin Tian and Bronte Tilbrook and Tubiello, {Francesco N.} and {Van Der Werf}, {Guido R.} and Wiltshire, {Andrew J.} and S{\"o}nke Zaehle",
year = "2019",
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day = "4",
doi = "10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019",
language = "English",
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Friedlingstein, P, Jones, MW, O'Sullivan, M, Andrew, RM, Hauck, J, Peters, GP, Peters, W, Pongratz, J, Sitch, S, Le Quéré, C, Bakker, DCE, Canadell1, JG, Ciais1, P, Jackson, RB, Anthoni, P, Barbero, L, Bastos, A, Bastrikov, V, Becker, M, Bopp, L, Buitenhuis, E, Chandra, N, Chevallier, F, Chini, LP, Currie, KI, Feely, RA, Gehlen, M, Gilfillan, D, Gkritzalis, T, Goll, DS, Gruber, N, Gutekunst, S, Harris, I, Haverd, V, Houghton, RA, Hurtt, G, Ilyina, T, Jain, AK, Joetzjer, E, Kaplan, JO, Kato, E, Goldewijk, KK, Korsbakken, JI, Landschützer, P, Lauvset, SK, Lefèvre, N, Lenton, A, Lienert, S, Lombardozzi, D, Marland, G, McGuire, PC, Melton, JR, Metzl, N, Munro, DR, Nabel, JEMS, Nakaoka, SI, Neill, C, Omar, AM, Ono, T, Peregon, A, Pierrot, D, Poulter, B, Rehder, G, Resplandy, L, Robertson, E, Rödenbeck, C, Séférian, R, Schwinger, J, Smith, N, Tans, PP, Tian, H, Tilbrook, B, Tubiello, FN, Van Der Werf, GR, Wiltshire, AJ & Zaehle, S 2019, 'Global carbon budget 2019', Earth System Science Data, vol. 11, no. 4, pp. 1783-1838. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019

Global carbon budget 2019. / Friedlingstein, Pierre; Jones, Matthew W.; O'Sullivan, Michael; Andrew, Robbie M.; Hauck, Judith; Peters, Glen P.; Peters, Wouter; Pongratz, Julia; Sitch, Stephen; Le Quéré, Corinne; Bakker, Dorothee C.E.; Canadell1, Josep G.; Ciais1, Philippe; Jackson, Robert B.; Anthoni, Peter; Barbero, Leticia; Bastos, Ana; Bastrikov, Vladislav; Becker, Meike; Bopp, Laurent; Buitenhuis, Erik; Chandra, Naveen; Chevallier, Frédéric; Chini, Louise P.; Currie, Kim I.; Feely, Richard A.; Gehlen, Marion; Gilfillan, Dennis; Gkritzalis, Thanos; Goll, Daniel S.; Gruber, Nicolas; Gutekunst, Sören; Harris, Ian; Haverd, Vanessa; Houghton, Richard A.; Hurtt, George; Ilyina, Tatiana; Jain, Atul K.; Joetzjer, Emilie; Kaplan, Jed O.; Kato, Etsushi; Goldewijk, Kees Klein; Korsbakken, Jan Ivar; Landschützer, Peter; Lauvset, Siv K.; Lefèvre, Nathalie; Lenton, Andrew; Lienert, Sebastian; Lombardozzi, Danica; Marland, Gregg; McGuire, Patrick C.; Melton, Joe R.; Metzl, Nicolas; Munro, David R.; Nabel, Julia E.M.S.; Nakaoka, Shin Ichiro; Neill, Craig; Omar, Abdirahman M.; Ono, Tsuneo; Peregon, Anna; Pierrot, Denis; Poulter, Benjamin; Rehder, Gregor; Resplandy, Laure; Robertson, Eddy; Rödenbeck, Christian; Séférian, Roland; Schwinger, Jörg; Smith, Naomi; Tans, Pieter P.; Tian, Hanqin; Tilbrook, Bronte; Tubiello, Francesco N.; Van Der Werf, Guido R.; Wiltshire, Andrew J.; Zaehle, Sönke.

In: Earth System Science Data, Vol. 11, No. 4, 04.12.2019, p. 1783-1838.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Global carbon budget 2019

AU - Friedlingstein, Pierre

AU - Jones, Matthew W.

AU - O'Sullivan, Michael

AU - Andrew, Robbie M.

AU - Hauck, Judith

AU - Peters, Glen P.

AU - Peters, Wouter

AU - Pongratz, Julia

AU - Sitch, Stephen

AU - Le Quéré, Corinne

AU - Bakker, Dorothee C.E.

AU - Canadell1, Josep G.

AU - Ciais1, Philippe

AU - Jackson, Robert B.

AU - Anthoni, Peter

AU - Barbero, Leticia

AU - Bastos, Ana

AU - Bastrikov, Vladislav

AU - Becker, Meike

AU - Bopp, Laurent

AU - Buitenhuis, Erik

AU - Chandra, Naveen

AU - Chevallier, Frédéric

AU - Chini, Louise P.

AU - Currie, Kim I.

AU - Feely, Richard A.

AU - Gehlen, Marion

AU - Gilfillan, Dennis

AU - Gkritzalis, Thanos

AU - Goll, Daniel S.

AU - Gruber, Nicolas

AU - Gutekunst, Sören

AU - Harris, Ian

AU - Haverd, Vanessa

AU - Houghton, Richard A.

AU - Hurtt, George

AU - Ilyina, Tatiana

AU - Jain, Atul K.

AU - Joetzjer, Emilie

AU - Kaplan, Jed O.

AU - Kato, Etsushi

AU - Goldewijk, Kees Klein

AU - Korsbakken, Jan Ivar

AU - Landschützer, Peter

AU - Lauvset, Siv K.

AU - Lefèvre, Nathalie

AU - Lenton, Andrew

AU - Lienert, Sebastian

AU - Lombardozzi, Danica

AU - Marland, Gregg

AU - McGuire, Patrick C.

AU - Melton, Joe R.

AU - Metzl, Nicolas

AU - Munro, David R.

AU - Nabel, Julia E.M.S.

AU - Nakaoka, Shin Ichiro

AU - Neill, Craig

AU - Omar, Abdirahman M.

AU - Ono, Tsuneo

AU - Peregon, Anna

AU - Pierrot, Denis

AU - Poulter, Benjamin

AU - Rehder, Gregor

AU - Resplandy, Laure

AU - Robertson, Eddy

AU - Rödenbeck, Christian

AU - Séférian, Roland

AU - Schwinger, Jörg

AU - Smith, Naomi

AU - Tans, Pieter P.

AU - Tian, Hanqin

AU - Tilbrook, Bronte

AU - Tubiello, Francesco N.

AU - Van Der Werf, Guido R.

AU - Wiltshire, Andrew J.

AU - Zaehle, Sönke

PY - 2019/12/4

Y1 - 2019/12/4

N2 - Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere-the "global carbon budget"-is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2009-2018), EFF was 9:5±0:5 GtC yr-1, ELUC 1:5±0:7 GtC yr-1, GATM 4:9±0:02 GtC yr-1 (2:3±0:01 ppm yr-1), SOCEAN 2:5±0:6 GtC yr-1, and SLAND 3:2±0:6 GtC yr-1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.4 GtC yr-1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2018 alone, the growth in EFF was about 2.1% and fossil emissions increased to 10:0±0:5 GtC yr-1, reaching 10 GtC yr-1 for the first time in history, ELUC was 1:5±0:7 GtC yr-1, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11:5±0:9 GtC yr-1 (42:5±3:3 GtCO2). Also for 2018, GATM was 5:1±0:2 GtC yr-1 (2:4±0:1 ppm yr-1), SOCEAN was 2:6±0:6 GtC yr-1, and SLAND was 3:5±0:7 GtC yr-1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 407:38±0:1 ppm averaged over 2018. For 2019, preliminary data for the first 6-10 months indicate a reduced growth in EFF of C0:6% (range of.0:2% to 1.5 %) based on national emissions projections for China, the USA, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. Overall, the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959-2018, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr-1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018a, b, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013). The data generated by this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2019 (Friedlingstein et al., 2019).

AB - Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere-the "global carbon budget"-is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2009-2018), EFF was 9:5±0:5 GtC yr-1, ELUC 1:5±0:7 GtC yr-1, GATM 4:9±0:02 GtC yr-1 (2:3±0:01 ppm yr-1), SOCEAN 2:5±0:6 GtC yr-1, and SLAND 3:2±0:6 GtC yr-1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.4 GtC yr-1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2018 alone, the growth in EFF was about 2.1% and fossil emissions increased to 10:0±0:5 GtC yr-1, reaching 10 GtC yr-1 for the first time in history, ELUC was 1:5±0:7 GtC yr-1, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11:5±0:9 GtC yr-1 (42:5±3:3 GtCO2). Also for 2018, GATM was 5:1±0:2 GtC yr-1 (2:4±0:1 ppm yr-1), SOCEAN was 2:6±0:6 GtC yr-1, and SLAND was 3:5±0:7 GtC yr-1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 407:38±0:1 ppm averaged over 2018. For 2019, preliminary data for the first 6-10 months indicate a reduced growth in EFF of C0:6% (range of.0:2% to 1.5 %) based on national emissions projections for China, the USA, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. Overall, the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959-2018, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr-1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018a, b, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013). The data generated by this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2019 (Friedlingstein et al., 2019).

U2 - 10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019

DO - 10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019

M3 - Article

VL - 11

SP - 1783

EP - 1838

JO - Earth System Science Data

JF - Earth System Science Data

SN - 1866-3508

IS - 4

ER -

Friedlingstein P, Jones MW, O'Sullivan M, Andrew RM, Hauck J, Peters GP et al. Global carbon budget 2019. Earth System Science Data. 2019 Dec 4;11(4):1783-1838. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019