Global atmospheric carbon budget: results from an ensemble of atmospheric CO2 inversions.

P. Peylin, R.M. Law, K.R. Gurney, F. Chevallier, A.R. Jacobsen, T. Maki, Y. Niwa, P.K. Patra, W. Peters, P.J. Rayner, C. Rödenbeck, I.T. van der Laan-Luijkx, X. Zhang

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Abstract

Atmospheric CO2 inversions estimate surface carbon fluxes from an optimal fit to atmospheric CO2 measurements, usually including prior constraints on the flux estimates. Eleven sets of carbon flux estimates are compared, generated by different inversions systems that vary in their inversions methods, choice of atmospheric data, transport model and prior information. The inversions were run for at least 5 yr in the period between 1990 and 2010. Mean fluxes for 2001-2004, seasonal cycles, interannual variability and trends are compared for the tropics and northern and southern extra-tropics, and separately for land and ocean. Some continental/basin-scale subdivisions are also considered where the atmospheric network is denser. Four-year mean fluxes are reasonably consistent across inversions at global/latitudinal scale, with a large total (land plus ocean) carbon uptake in the north (-3.4 Pg C yr(-1) (+/- 0.5 Pg C yr(-1) standard deviation), with slightly more uptake over land than over ocean), a significant although more variable source over the tropics (1.6 +/- 0.9 Pg C yr(-1)) and a compensatory sink of similar magnitude in the south (-1.4 +/- 0.5 Pg C yr(-1)) corresponding mainly to an ocean sink. Largest differences across inversions occur in the balance between tropical land sources and southern land sinks. Interannual variability (IAV) in carbon fluxes is larger for land than ocean regions (standard deviation around 1.06 versus 0.33 Pg C yr(-1) for the 1996-2007 period), with much higher consistency among the inversions for the land. While the tropical land explains most of the IAV (standard deviation similar to 0.65 Pg C yr(-1)), the northern and southern land also contribute (standard deviation similar to 0.39 Pg C yr(-1)). Most inversions tend to indicate an increase of the northern land carbon uptake from late 1990s to 2008 (around 0.1 Pg C yr(-1)), predominantly in North Asia. The mean seasonal cycle appears to be well constrained by the atmospheric data over the northern land (at the continental scale), but still highly dependent on the prior flux seasonality over the ocean. Finally we provide recommendations to interpret the regional fluxes, along with the uncertainty estimates.
LanguageEnglish
Pages6699-6720
JournalBiogeosciences
Volume10
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2013

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carbon budget
carbon
oceans
ocean
carbon flux
tropics
inversion
land
seasonality
uncertainty
basins

Keywords

  • interannual variability
  • dioxide exchange
  • transport model
  • sinks
  • fluxes
  • sensitivity
  • ocean
  • land
  • cycle
  • emissions

Cite this

Peylin, P., Law, R. M., Gurney, K. R., Chevallier, F., Jacobsen, A. R., Maki, T., ... Zhang, X. (2013). Global atmospheric carbon budget: results from an ensemble of atmospheric CO2 inversions. Biogeosciences, 10, 6699-6720. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6699-2013
Peylin, P. ; Law, R.M. ; Gurney, K.R. ; Chevallier, F. ; Jacobsen, A.R. ; Maki, T. ; Niwa, Y. ; Patra, P.K. ; Peters, W. ; Rayner, P.J. ; Rödenbeck, C. ; van der Laan-Luijkx, I.T. ; Zhang, X. / Global atmospheric carbon budget: results from an ensemble of atmospheric CO2 inversions. In: Biogeosciences. 2013 ; Vol. 10. pp. 6699-6720.
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abstract = "Atmospheric CO2 inversions estimate surface carbon fluxes from an optimal fit to atmospheric CO2 measurements, usually including prior constraints on the flux estimates. Eleven sets of carbon flux estimates are compared, generated by different inversions systems that vary in their inversions methods, choice of atmospheric data, transport model and prior information. The inversions were run for at least 5 yr in the period between 1990 and 2010. Mean fluxes for 2001-2004, seasonal cycles, interannual variability and trends are compared for the tropics and northern and southern extra-tropics, and separately for land and ocean. Some continental/basin-scale subdivisions are also considered where the atmospheric network is denser. Four-year mean fluxes are reasonably consistent across inversions at global/latitudinal scale, with a large total (land plus ocean) carbon uptake in the north (-3.4 Pg C yr(-1) (+/- 0.5 Pg C yr(-1) standard deviation), with slightly more uptake over land than over ocean), a significant although more variable source over the tropics (1.6 +/- 0.9 Pg C yr(-1)) and a compensatory sink of similar magnitude in the south (-1.4 +/- 0.5 Pg C yr(-1)) corresponding mainly to an ocean sink. Largest differences across inversions occur in the balance between tropical land sources and southern land sinks. Interannual variability (IAV) in carbon fluxes is larger for land than ocean regions (standard deviation around 1.06 versus 0.33 Pg C yr(-1) for the 1996-2007 period), with much higher consistency among the inversions for the land. While the tropical land explains most of the IAV (standard deviation similar to 0.65 Pg C yr(-1)), the northern and southern land also contribute (standard deviation similar to 0.39 Pg C yr(-1)). Most inversions tend to indicate an increase of the northern land carbon uptake from late 1990s to 2008 (around 0.1 Pg C yr(-1)), predominantly in North Asia. The mean seasonal cycle appears to be well constrained by the atmospheric data over the northern land (at the continental scale), but still highly dependent on the prior flux seasonality over the ocean. Finally we provide recommendations to interpret the regional fluxes, along with the uncertainty estimates.",
keywords = "interannual variability, dioxide exchange, transport model, sinks, fluxes, sensitivity, ocean, land, cycle, emissions",
author = "P. Peylin and R.M. Law and K.R. Gurney and F. Chevallier and A.R. Jacobsen and T. Maki and Y. Niwa and P.K. Patra and W. Peters and P.J. Rayner and C. R{\"o}denbeck and {van der Laan-Luijkx}, I.T. and X. Zhang",
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Peylin, P, Law, RM, Gurney, KR, Chevallier, F, Jacobsen, AR, Maki, T, Niwa, Y, Patra, PK, Peters, W, Rayner, PJ, Rödenbeck, C, van der Laan-Luijkx, IT & Zhang, X 2013, 'Global atmospheric carbon budget: results from an ensemble of atmospheric CO2 inversions.', Biogeosciences, vol. 10, pp. 6699-6720. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6699-2013

Global atmospheric carbon budget: results from an ensemble of atmospheric CO2 inversions. / Peylin, P.; Law, R.M.; Gurney, K.R.; Chevallier, F.; Jacobsen, A.R.; Maki, T.; Niwa, Y.; Patra, P.K.; Peters, W.; Rayner, P.J.; Rödenbeck, C.; van der Laan-Luijkx, I.T.; Zhang, X.

In: Biogeosciences, Vol. 10, 2013, p. 6699-6720.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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T1 - Global atmospheric carbon budget: results from an ensemble of atmospheric CO2 inversions.

AU - Peylin, P.

AU - Law, R.M.

AU - Gurney, K.R.

AU - Chevallier, F.

AU - Jacobsen, A.R.

AU - Maki, T.

AU - Niwa, Y.

AU - Patra, P.K.

AU - Peters, W.

AU - Rayner, P.J.

AU - Rödenbeck, C.

AU - van der Laan-Luijkx, I.T.

AU - Zhang, X.

PY - 2013

Y1 - 2013

N2 - Atmospheric CO2 inversions estimate surface carbon fluxes from an optimal fit to atmospheric CO2 measurements, usually including prior constraints on the flux estimates. Eleven sets of carbon flux estimates are compared, generated by different inversions systems that vary in their inversions methods, choice of atmospheric data, transport model and prior information. The inversions were run for at least 5 yr in the period between 1990 and 2010. Mean fluxes for 2001-2004, seasonal cycles, interannual variability and trends are compared for the tropics and northern and southern extra-tropics, and separately for land and ocean. Some continental/basin-scale subdivisions are also considered where the atmospheric network is denser. Four-year mean fluxes are reasonably consistent across inversions at global/latitudinal scale, with a large total (land plus ocean) carbon uptake in the north (-3.4 Pg C yr(-1) (+/- 0.5 Pg C yr(-1) standard deviation), with slightly more uptake over land than over ocean), a significant although more variable source over the tropics (1.6 +/- 0.9 Pg C yr(-1)) and a compensatory sink of similar magnitude in the south (-1.4 +/- 0.5 Pg C yr(-1)) corresponding mainly to an ocean sink. Largest differences across inversions occur in the balance between tropical land sources and southern land sinks. Interannual variability (IAV) in carbon fluxes is larger for land than ocean regions (standard deviation around 1.06 versus 0.33 Pg C yr(-1) for the 1996-2007 period), with much higher consistency among the inversions for the land. While the tropical land explains most of the IAV (standard deviation similar to 0.65 Pg C yr(-1)), the northern and southern land also contribute (standard deviation similar to 0.39 Pg C yr(-1)). Most inversions tend to indicate an increase of the northern land carbon uptake from late 1990s to 2008 (around 0.1 Pg C yr(-1)), predominantly in North Asia. The mean seasonal cycle appears to be well constrained by the atmospheric data over the northern land (at the continental scale), but still highly dependent on the prior flux seasonality over the ocean. Finally we provide recommendations to interpret the regional fluxes, along with the uncertainty estimates.

AB - Atmospheric CO2 inversions estimate surface carbon fluxes from an optimal fit to atmospheric CO2 measurements, usually including prior constraints on the flux estimates. Eleven sets of carbon flux estimates are compared, generated by different inversions systems that vary in their inversions methods, choice of atmospheric data, transport model and prior information. The inversions were run for at least 5 yr in the period between 1990 and 2010. Mean fluxes for 2001-2004, seasonal cycles, interannual variability and trends are compared for the tropics and northern and southern extra-tropics, and separately for land and ocean. Some continental/basin-scale subdivisions are also considered where the atmospheric network is denser. Four-year mean fluxes are reasonably consistent across inversions at global/latitudinal scale, with a large total (land plus ocean) carbon uptake in the north (-3.4 Pg C yr(-1) (+/- 0.5 Pg C yr(-1) standard deviation), with slightly more uptake over land than over ocean), a significant although more variable source over the tropics (1.6 +/- 0.9 Pg C yr(-1)) and a compensatory sink of similar magnitude in the south (-1.4 +/- 0.5 Pg C yr(-1)) corresponding mainly to an ocean sink. Largest differences across inversions occur in the balance between tropical land sources and southern land sinks. Interannual variability (IAV) in carbon fluxes is larger for land than ocean regions (standard deviation around 1.06 versus 0.33 Pg C yr(-1) for the 1996-2007 period), with much higher consistency among the inversions for the land. While the tropical land explains most of the IAV (standard deviation similar to 0.65 Pg C yr(-1)), the northern and southern land also contribute (standard deviation similar to 0.39 Pg C yr(-1)). Most inversions tend to indicate an increase of the northern land carbon uptake from late 1990s to 2008 (around 0.1 Pg C yr(-1)), predominantly in North Asia. The mean seasonal cycle appears to be well constrained by the atmospheric data over the northern land (at the continental scale), but still highly dependent on the prior flux seasonality over the ocean. Finally we provide recommendations to interpret the regional fluxes, along with the uncertainty estimates.

KW - interannual variability

KW - dioxide exchange

KW - transport model

KW - sinks

KW - fluxes

KW - sensitivity

KW - ocean

KW - land

KW - cycle

KW - emissions

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DO - 10.5194/bg-10-6699-2013

M3 - Article

VL - 10

SP - 6699

EP - 6720

JO - Biogeosciences

T2 - Biogeosciences

JF - Biogeosciences

SN - 1726-4170

ER -