Future trends in environmental impact of eucalyptus-based Kraft pulp industry in Thailand: a scenario analysis

This study explores possible future trends in the environmental impact of the Kraft pulp industry in Thailand between 2000 and 2020. Scenarios were developed to analyze the effect of different options to reduce the future environmental impact, and the costs associated with the implementation of these options. The analysis indicates that without currently applied reduction options the environmental impact would be twice as high as it currently is. For a Business-as-Usual scenario, in which no additional pollution reduction options are assumed to be implemented, the overall environmental impact is calculated to increase between 2000 and 2020 by a factor of two. Next, five Environmental Policy scenarios reflecting different strategies were defined to reduce the environmental impact. The results indicate that it is theoretically possible to reduce the overall environmental impact by almost 50% relative to the BAU 2020 levels. This scenario, however, may not be feasible because of the high costs involved. Four other Environmental Policy scenarios result in a reduction of the impact by 24-37% relative to the BAU scenario. Based on these results, it can be concluded that there are different ways to reduce the overall environmental impact by about one-third relative to BAU trends. Relatively large differences in the costs of the options included in the scenarios were also observed. We conclude that combining the most costeffective options may be the most interesting strategy for reducing the overall environmental impact of Kraft pulp industry in Thailand.