Future low flows and hydrological drought: How certain are these for Europe?

Marcel A.A. Alderlieste, Henny A.J. Van Lanen, Niko Wanders

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference paper

7 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Climate data from a re-analysis dataset (WFD, 1971-2000) and three GCMs (1971-2100) for two emissions scenarios were used to: (i) explore future low flows and hydrological drought characteristics, and (ii) estimate how uncertainty in forcing propagates into these characteristics. Runoff was obtained through a multi-model mean from large-scale models forced with WFD and GCMs. Low flow and drought characteristics in two transects across Europe were intercompared for 1971-2000 to estimate forcing uncertainty, and for two future time frames to quantify climate change impact and to compare impact with forcing uncertainty (signal-noise ratios). Annual flow was projected to decrease (maximum 30%), but forcing uncertainty is larger (minimum 35%). Drought duration was predicted to increase (50-180%) with low forcing uncertainty (<10%). Similar observations were made for future deficit volumes. This study shows that future droughts can be predicted with higher certainty than low flows and that multi-forcing is required.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationHydrology in a Changing World
Subtitle of host publicationEnvironmental and Human Dimensions - Proceedings of FRIEND-Water 2014
EditorsEric Servat, Jean-Emmanuel Paturel, Alain Dezetter, Gregor Laaha, Jean-Francois Boyer, Denis Ruelland, Siegfried Demuth, Gil Mahe, Trevor M. Daniell, Henny A. J. van Lanen
PublisherCopernicus GmbH
Pages60-65
Number of pages6
ISBN (Electronic)9781907161414
Publication statusPublished - 2014
Event7th World Flow Regimes from International and Experimental Network Data-Water Conference, FRIEND-Water 2014 - Montpellier, France
Duration: 7 Oct 201410 Oct 2014

Publication series

NameIAHS-AISH Proceedings and Reports
Volume363
ISSN (Print)0144-7815

Conference

Conference7th World Flow Regimes from International and Experimental Network Data-Water Conference, FRIEND-Water 2014
CountryFrance
CityMontpellier
Period7/10/1410/10/14

Fingerprint

low flow
drought
general circulation model
transect
runoff
climate change
Europe
climate

Keywords

  • Europe
  • Forcing
  • Future
  • Hydrological drought
  • Low flow
  • Runoff
  • Uncertainty

Cite this

Alderlieste, M. A. A., Van Lanen, H. A. J., & Wanders, N. (2014). Future low flows and hydrological drought: How certain are these for Europe? In E. Servat, J-E. Paturel, A. Dezetter, G. Laaha, J-F. Boyer, D. Ruelland, S. Demuth, G. Mahe, T. M. Daniell, ... H. A. J. van Lanen (Eds.), Hydrology in a Changing World: Environmental and Human Dimensions - Proceedings of FRIEND-Water 2014 (pp. 60-65). (IAHS-AISH Proceedings and Reports; Vol. 363). Copernicus GmbH.
Alderlieste, Marcel A.A. ; Van Lanen, Henny A.J. ; Wanders, Niko. / Future low flows and hydrological drought: How certain are these for Europe?. Hydrology in a Changing World: Environmental and Human Dimensions - Proceedings of FRIEND-Water 2014. editor / Eric Servat ; Jean-Emmanuel Paturel ; Alain Dezetter ; Gregor Laaha ; Jean-Francois Boyer ; Denis Ruelland ; Siegfried Demuth ; Gil Mahe ; Trevor M. Daniell ; Henny A. J. van Lanen. Copernicus GmbH, 2014. pp. 60-65 (IAHS-AISH Proceedings and Reports).
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abstract = "Climate data from a re-analysis dataset (WFD, 1971-2000) and three GCMs (1971-2100) for two emissions scenarios were used to: (i) explore future low flows and hydrological drought characteristics, and (ii) estimate how uncertainty in forcing propagates into these characteristics. Runoff was obtained through a multi-model mean from large-scale models forced with WFD and GCMs. Low flow and drought characteristics in two transects across Europe were intercompared for 1971-2000 to estimate forcing uncertainty, and for two future time frames to quantify climate change impact and to compare impact with forcing uncertainty (signal-noise ratios). Annual flow was projected to decrease (maximum 30{\%}), but forcing uncertainty is larger (minimum 35{\%}). Drought duration was predicted to increase (50-180{\%}) with low forcing uncertainty (<10{\%}). Similar observations were made for future deficit volumes. This study shows that future droughts can be predicted with higher certainty than low flows and that multi-forcing is required.",
keywords = "Europe, Forcing, Future, Hydrological drought, Low flow, Runoff, Uncertainty",
author = "Alderlieste, {Marcel A.A.} and {Van Lanen}, {Henny A.J.} and Niko Wanders",
year = "2014",
language = "English",
series = "IAHS-AISH Proceedings and Reports",
publisher = "Copernicus GmbH",
pages = "60--65",
editor = "Eric Servat and Jean-Emmanuel Paturel and Alain Dezetter and Gregor Laaha and Jean-Francois Boyer and Denis Ruelland and Siegfried Demuth and Gil Mahe and Daniell, {Trevor M.} and {van Lanen}, {Henny A. J.}",
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Alderlieste, MAA, Van Lanen, HAJ & Wanders, N 2014, Future low flows and hydrological drought: How certain are these for Europe? in E Servat, J-E Paturel, A Dezetter, G Laaha, J-F Boyer, D Ruelland, S Demuth, G Mahe, TM Daniell & HAJ van Lanen (eds), Hydrology in a Changing World: Environmental and Human Dimensions - Proceedings of FRIEND-Water 2014. IAHS-AISH Proceedings and Reports, vol. 363, Copernicus GmbH, pp. 60-65, 7th World Flow Regimes from International and Experimental Network Data-Water Conference, FRIEND-Water 2014, Montpellier, France, 7/10/14.

Future low flows and hydrological drought: How certain are these for Europe? / Alderlieste, Marcel A.A.; Van Lanen, Henny A.J.; Wanders, Niko.

Hydrology in a Changing World: Environmental and Human Dimensions - Proceedings of FRIEND-Water 2014. ed. / Eric Servat; Jean-Emmanuel Paturel; Alain Dezetter; Gregor Laaha; Jean-Francois Boyer; Denis Ruelland; Siegfried Demuth; Gil Mahe; Trevor M. Daniell; Henny A. J. van Lanen. Copernicus GmbH, 2014. p. 60-65 (IAHS-AISH Proceedings and Reports; Vol. 363).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference paper

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T1 - Future low flows and hydrological drought: How certain are these for Europe?

AU - Alderlieste, Marcel A.A.

AU - Van Lanen, Henny A.J.

AU - Wanders, Niko

PY - 2014

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N2 - Climate data from a re-analysis dataset (WFD, 1971-2000) and three GCMs (1971-2100) for two emissions scenarios were used to: (i) explore future low flows and hydrological drought characteristics, and (ii) estimate how uncertainty in forcing propagates into these characteristics. Runoff was obtained through a multi-model mean from large-scale models forced with WFD and GCMs. Low flow and drought characteristics in two transects across Europe were intercompared for 1971-2000 to estimate forcing uncertainty, and for two future time frames to quantify climate change impact and to compare impact with forcing uncertainty (signal-noise ratios). Annual flow was projected to decrease (maximum 30%), but forcing uncertainty is larger (minimum 35%). Drought duration was predicted to increase (50-180%) with low forcing uncertainty (<10%). Similar observations were made for future deficit volumes. This study shows that future droughts can be predicted with higher certainty than low flows and that multi-forcing is required.

AB - Climate data from a re-analysis dataset (WFD, 1971-2000) and three GCMs (1971-2100) for two emissions scenarios were used to: (i) explore future low flows and hydrological drought characteristics, and (ii) estimate how uncertainty in forcing propagates into these characteristics. Runoff was obtained through a multi-model mean from large-scale models forced with WFD and GCMs. Low flow and drought characteristics in two transects across Europe were intercompared for 1971-2000 to estimate forcing uncertainty, and for two future time frames to quantify climate change impact and to compare impact with forcing uncertainty (signal-noise ratios). Annual flow was projected to decrease (maximum 30%), but forcing uncertainty is larger (minimum 35%). Drought duration was predicted to increase (50-180%) with low forcing uncertainty (<10%). Similar observations were made for future deficit volumes. This study shows that future droughts can be predicted with higher certainty than low flows and that multi-forcing is required.

KW - Europe

KW - Forcing

KW - Future

KW - Hydrological drought

KW - Low flow

KW - Runoff

KW - Uncertainty

M3 - Conference paper

T3 - IAHS-AISH Proceedings and Reports

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EP - 65

BT - Hydrology in a Changing World

A2 - Servat, Eric

A2 - Paturel, Jean-Emmanuel

A2 - Dezetter, Alain

A2 - Laaha, Gregor

A2 - Boyer, Jean-Francois

A2 - Ruelland, Denis

A2 - Demuth, Siegfried

A2 - Mahe, Gil

A2 - Daniell, Trevor M.

A2 - van Lanen, Henny A. J.

PB - Copernicus GmbH

ER -

Alderlieste MAA, Van Lanen HAJ, Wanders N. Future low flows and hydrological drought: How certain are these for Europe? In Servat E, Paturel J-E, Dezetter A, Laaha G, Boyer J-F, Ruelland D, Demuth S, Mahe G, Daniell TM, van Lanen HAJ, editors, Hydrology in a Changing World: Environmental and Human Dimensions - Proceedings of FRIEND-Water 2014. Copernicus GmbH. 2014. p. 60-65. (IAHS-AISH Proceedings and Reports).