@inproceedings{e735269875374658a2c2ac02da56048d,
title = "Future low flows and hydrological drought: How certain are these for Europe?",
abstract = "Climate data from a re-analysis dataset (WFD, 1971-2000) and three GCMs (1971-2100) for two emissions scenarios were used to: (i) explore future low flows and hydrological drought characteristics, and (ii) estimate how uncertainty in forcing propagates into these characteristics. Runoff was obtained through a multi-model mean from large-scale models forced with WFD and GCMs. Low flow and drought characteristics in two transects across Europe were intercompared for 1971-2000 to estimate forcing uncertainty, and for two future time frames to quantify climate change impact and to compare impact with forcing uncertainty (signal-noise ratios). Annual flow was projected to decrease (maximum 30%), but forcing uncertainty is larger (minimum 35%). Drought duration was predicted to increase (50-180%) with low forcing uncertainty (<10%). Similar observations were made for future deficit volumes. This study shows that future droughts can be predicted with higher certainty than low flows and that multi-forcing is required.",
keywords = "Europe, Forcing, Future, Hydrological drought, Low flow, Runoff, Uncertainty",
author = "Alderlieste, {Marcel A.A.} and {Van Lanen}, {Henny A.J.} and Niko Wanders",
year = "2014",
language = "English",
series = "IAHS-AISH Proceedings and Reports",
publisher = "Copernicus GmbH",
pages = "60--65",
editor = "Eric Servat and Jean-Emmanuel Paturel and Alain Dezetter and Gregor Laaha and Jean-Francois Boyer and Denis Ruelland and Siegfried Demuth and Gil Mahe and Daniell, {Trevor M.} and {van Lanen}, {Henny A. J.}",
booktitle = "Hydrology in a Changing World",
note = "7th World Flow Regimes from International and Experimental Network Data-Water Conference, FRIEND-Water 2014 ; Conference date: 07-10-2014 Through 10-10-2014",
}
