Future low flows and hydrological drought: How certain are these for Europe?

Marcel A.A. Alderlieste, Henny A.J. Van Lanen, Niko Wanders

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference paper

8 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Climate data from a re-analysis dataset (WFD, 1971-2000) and three GCMs (1971-2100) for two emissions scenarios were used to: (i) explore future low flows and hydrological drought characteristics, and (ii) estimate how uncertainty in forcing propagates into these characteristics. Runoff was obtained through a multi-model mean from large-scale models forced with WFD and GCMs. Low flow and drought characteristics in two transects across Europe were intercompared for 1971-2000 to estimate forcing uncertainty, and for two future time frames to quantify climate change impact and to compare impact with forcing uncertainty (signal-noise ratios). Annual flow was projected to decrease (maximum 30%), but forcing uncertainty is larger (minimum 35%). Drought duration was predicted to increase (50-180%) with low forcing uncertainty (<10%). Similar observations were made for future deficit volumes. This study shows that future droughts can be predicted with higher certainty than low flows and that multi-forcing is required.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationHydrology in a Changing World
Subtitle of host publicationEnvironmental and Human Dimensions - Proceedings of FRIEND-Water 2014
EditorsEric Servat, Jean-Emmanuel Paturel, Alain Dezetter, Gregor Laaha, Jean-Francois Boyer, Denis Ruelland, Siegfried Demuth, Gil Mahe, Trevor M. Daniell, Henny A. J. van Lanen
PublisherCopernicus GmbH
Pages60-65
Number of pages6
ISBN (Electronic)9781907161414
Publication statusPublished - 2014
Event7th World Flow Regimes from International and Experimental Network Data-Water Conference, FRIEND-Water 2014 - Montpellier, France
Duration: 7 Oct 201410 Oct 2014

Publication series

NameIAHS-AISH Proceedings and Reports
Volume363
ISSN (Print)0144-7815

Conference

Conference7th World Flow Regimes from International and Experimental Network Data-Water Conference, FRIEND-Water 2014
CountryFrance
CityMontpellier
Period7/10/1410/10/14

Keywords

  • Europe
  • Forcing
  • Future
  • Hydrological drought
  • Low flow
  • Runoff
  • Uncertainty

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  • Cite this

    Alderlieste, M. A. A., Van Lanen, H. A. J., & Wanders, N. (2014). Future low flows and hydrological drought: How certain are these for Europe? In E. Servat, J-E. Paturel, A. Dezetter, G. Laaha, J-F. Boyer, D. Ruelland, S. Demuth, G. Mahe, T. M. Daniell, & H. A. J. van Lanen (Eds.), Hydrology in a Changing World: Environmental and Human Dimensions - Proceedings of FRIEND-Water 2014 (pp. 60-65). (IAHS-AISH Proceedings and Reports; Vol. 363). Copernicus GmbH. https://iahs.info/uploads/dms/16568.14-60-65-363-11-Paper-87-Alderlieste-et-al..pdf