From recorded controlled atmosphere chain conditions to model predictions for remaining storage life

Fruit and vegetables have a limited storage life and shelf life. It depends among others on the type of product, and the chain conditions. Practitioners frequently face the challenge to interpret recorded chain conditions in terms of the remaining storage life. This paper reports on the development of a generic model that predicts remaining storage life from recorded chain conditions. Here ‘chain conditions’ mean time series of temperature, oxygen and carbon dioxide concentrations. A pivotal element in the model is the respiration sum, i.e., the integral over the estimated respiration rate based on measured chain conditions. As a first test, ripeness of ‘Hass’ avocados after three weeks of commercial Controlled Atmosphere reefer transport was compared with the respiration sum during transport. A data set of over 150 shipments revealed a positive correlation between the ripeness after transport and the respiration sum. We reflect on the limitations of using data sets, collected in commercial settings, for calibration of remaining storage life prediction models. The presented generic model is available in the cloud via an API. We are currently building a database with model parameters for many more fruits, vegetables and cut flowers, and aim to develop this into an interactive website at www.shelflifecalculator.nl. The target audience consists first and foremost of stakeholders in the global logistics chains: producers, cold store operators, refrigerated transport service providers, importers and exporters.