Forest connectivity, host assemblage characteristics of local and neighboring counties, and temperature jointly shape the spatial expansion of lyme disease in United States

Yingying X.G. Wang, Kevin D. Matson, Yanjie Xu, Herbert H.T. Prins, Zheng Y.X. Huang*, Willem F. de Boer

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalLetterAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

Understanding risk factors for the spread of infectious diseases over time and across the landscape is critical for managing disease risk. While habitat connectivity and characteristics of local and neighboring animal (i.e., host) assemblages are known to influence the spread of diseases, the interactions among these factors remain poorly understood. In this study, we conducted a county-level analysis to test the effects of forest connectivity, together with the suitability of local assemblage (measured by the similarity of local host assemblage with neighboring assemblages) and the infection intensity of neighboring counties on the spatial expansion of Lyme disease in the United States. Our results suggested that both the similarity of local host assemblage and the infection intensity of neighboring counties were positively correlated with the probability of disease spread. Moreover, we found that increasing forest connectivity could facilitate the positive effect of neighbor infection intensity. In contrast, the effect size of the host assemblage similarity decreased with increasing connectivity, suggesting that host assemblage similarity was less effective in well-connected habitats. Our results thus indicate that habitat connectivity can indirectly influence disease spread by mediating the effects of other risk factors.

Original languageEnglish
Article number2354
JournalRemote Sensing
Volume11
Issue number20
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 11 Oct 2019

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Lyme disease
connectivity
disease spread
risk factor
temperature
habitat
infectious disease
county
effect
animal
infection

Keywords

  • Assemblage similarity
  • Disease spread
  • Forest cover
  • Host assemblage composition
  • Infection intensity

Cite this

@article{3527e823a3e140e59ebd04da0cd45615,
title = "Forest connectivity, host assemblage characteristics of local and neighboring counties, and temperature jointly shape the spatial expansion of lyme disease in United States",
abstract = "Understanding risk factors for the spread of infectious diseases over time and across the landscape is critical for managing disease risk. While habitat connectivity and characteristics of local and neighboring animal (i.e., host) assemblages are known to influence the spread of diseases, the interactions among these factors remain poorly understood. In this study, we conducted a county-level analysis to test the effects of forest connectivity, together with the suitability of local assemblage (measured by the similarity of local host assemblage with neighboring assemblages) and the infection intensity of neighboring counties on the spatial expansion of Lyme disease in the United States. Our results suggested that both the similarity of local host assemblage and the infection intensity of neighboring counties were positively correlated with the probability of disease spread. Moreover, we found that increasing forest connectivity could facilitate the positive effect of neighbor infection intensity. In contrast, the effect size of the host assemblage similarity decreased with increasing connectivity, suggesting that host assemblage similarity was less effective in well-connected habitats. Our results thus indicate that habitat connectivity can indirectly influence disease spread by mediating the effects of other risk factors.",
keywords = "Assemblage similarity, Disease spread, Forest cover, Host assemblage composition, Infection intensity",
author = "Wang, {Yingying X.G.} and Matson, {Kevin D.} and Yanjie Xu and Prins, {Herbert H.T.} and Huang, {Zheng Y.X.} and {de Boer}, {Willem F.}",
year = "2019",
month = "10",
day = "11",
doi = "10.3390/rs11202354",
language = "English",
volume = "11",
journal = "Remote Sensing",
issn = "2072-4292",
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number = "20",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Forest connectivity, host assemblage characteristics of local and neighboring counties, and temperature jointly shape the spatial expansion of lyme disease in United States

AU - Wang, Yingying X.G.

AU - Matson, Kevin D.

AU - Xu, Yanjie

AU - Prins, Herbert H.T.

AU - Huang, Zheng Y.X.

AU - de Boer, Willem F.

PY - 2019/10/11

Y1 - 2019/10/11

N2 - Understanding risk factors for the spread of infectious diseases over time and across the landscape is critical for managing disease risk. While habitat connectivity and characteristics of local and neighboring animal (i.e., host) assemblages are known to influence the spread of diseases, the interactions among these factors remain poorly understood. In this study, we conducted a county-level analysis to test the effects of forest connectivity, together with the suitability of local assemblage (measured by the similarity of local host assemblage with neighboring assemblages) and the infection intensity of neighboring counties on the spatial expansion of Lyme disease in the United States. Our results suggested that both the similarity of local host assemblage and the infection intensity of neighboring counties were positively correlated with the probability of disease spread. Moreover, we found that increasing forest connectivity could facilitate the positive effect of neighbor infection intensity. In contrast, the effect size of the host assemblage similarity decreased with increasing connectivity, suggesting that host assemblage similarity was less effective in well-connected habitats. Our results thus indicate that habitat connectivity can indirectly influence disease spread by mediating the effects of other risk factors.

AB - Understanding risk factors for the spread of infectious diseases over time and across the landscape is critical for managing disease risk. While habitat connectivity and characteristics of local and neighboring animal (i.e., host) assemblages are known to influence the spread of diseases, the interactions among these factors remain poorly understood. In this study, we conducted a county-level analysis to test the effects of forest connectivity, together with the suitability of local assemblage (measured by the similarity of local host assemblage with neighboring assemblages) and the infection intensity of neighboring counties on the spatial expansion of Lyme disease in the United States. Our results suggested that both the similarity of local host assemblage and the infection intensity of neighboring counties were positively correlated with the probability of disease spread. Moreover, we found that increasing forest connectivity could facilitate the positive effect of neighbor infection intensity. In contrast, the effect size of the host assemblage similarity decreased with increasing connectivity, suggesting that host assemblage similarity was less effective in well-connected habitats. Our results thus indicate that habitat connectivity can indirectly influence disease spread by mediating the effects of other risk factors.

KW - Assemblage similarity

KW - Disease spread

KW - Forest cover

KW - Host assemblage composition

KW - Infection intensity

U2 - 10.3390/rs11202354

DO - 10.3390/rs11202354

M3 - Letter

VL - 11

JO - Remote Sensing

JF - Remote Sensing

SN - 2072-4292

IS - 20

M1 - 2354

ER -