Forecasting product sales with a stochastic Bass model

Johan Grasman*, Marcel Kornelis

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

With the Bass model and data of previous sales a point estimate of future sales can be made for the purpose of stock management. In order to obtain information about the accuracy of that estimate a confidence interval can be of use. In this study such an interval is constructed from a Bass model extended with a noise term. The size of the noise is assumed to be proportional with the yearly sales. It is also assumed that the deviation from the deterministic solution is sufficiently small to make a small noise approximation. This perturbation takes the form of a time dependent Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. For the variance of the perturbation an exact expression can be given which is needed in order to obtain confidence intervals.

Original languageEnglish
Article number2
Number of pages10
JournalJournal of Mathematics in Industry
Volume9
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 7 Feb 2019

Keywords

  • Bass model
  • Confidence domain
  • Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process
  • Sensitivity of parameter to data

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