Fertilizer recommendations for maize production in Ghana: Comparison of machine learning, semi-mechanistic and conventional approaches

Efficient fertilizer application is vital for enhancing maize production and profitability in Sub-Saharan Africa, where soil fertility varies widely across regions. This study aimed to develop a machine learning approach for generating site-specific fertilizer recommendations for maize production in Ghana and to evaluate its performance against conventional and semi-mechanistic approaches. A random forest machine learning model was trained on 482 maize yield experiments, consisting of 3136 yield observations collected from 1991 to 2020, to predict maize yield response to different fertilizer rates. The model incorporated multiple explanatory variables, including soil properties, climate conditions, and management practices, to generate fertilizer response curves from which fertilizer recommendations were derived for 14 sites across three agro-ecological zones in Ghana where field validation experiments were conducted. On these sites, the recommendations were compared with recommendations derived from the Quantitative Evaluation of the Fertility of Tropical Soils (QUEFTS), Conventional Fertilizer Dose Response (CFDR), and Updated Conventional Fertilizer Dose Response (UCFDR) approaches and validated through field experiments. The machine learning approach generally recommended lower rates of phosphorus and potassium than the other approaches, while nitrogen recommendations were comparable. In the Guinea Savanna zone, the recommendations from the machine learning approach outperformed those from the other approaches, producing higher mean yields for three out of the four sites in the zone. In the Forest-Savanna Transition (FST) zone, the machine learning model recommendations led to higher mean yields at four sites, while the approaches based on QUEFTS and UCFDR performed best at two other sites. In the Semi-deciduous Forest zone, the recommendations of the QUEFTS approach resulted in the highest mean yields at three sites, and CFDR at one site. Despite high input prices during the period of experimentation, the machine learning approach-based recommendations demonstrated higher net profit margins in the FST zone, suggesting cost-effectiveness in this zone. These findings indicate that site-specific fertilizer recommendations are more efficient than blanket recommendations and that machine learning approaches offer a promising and innovative approach for generating cost-effective, site-specific fertilizer recommendations in tropical climates.