Feasibility study of the development of population models for the northern fulmar (Fulmarus glacialis) and the Atlantic puffin (Fratercula arctica)

This memo assesses whether sufficient information is available to develop stage-structured matrix population models for two species of seabirds, the northern fulmar (Fulmarus glacialis) and the Atlantic puffin (Fratercula arctica). Development of such models requires age-specific estimates of survival and reproduction rates. For both species, there is sufficient information on adult survival rate and colony productivity (reproduction rate), but the survival of immature birds is less well studied. There is little evidence for density-dependent effects on survival and reproduction. We conclude that density-independent population models for these species can be developed and that model robustness with respect to immature survival should be addressed during model analysis. We advise to go ahead with the development of the models for these species.