Exploring the usefulness of scenario archetypes in science-policy processes: Experience across IPBES assessments

Nadia Sitas, Zuzana V. Harmáčková, Jonathan A. Anticamara, Almut Arneth, Ruchi Badola, Reinette Biggs, Ryan Blanchard, Lluis Brotons, Matthew Cantele, Kaera Coetzer, Rajarshi Dasgupta, Eefje Den Belder, Sonali Ghosh, Antoine Guisan, Haripriya Gundimeda, Maike Hamann, Paula A. Harrison, Shizuka Hashimoto, Jennifer Hauck, Brian J. Klatt & 12 others Kasper Kok, Rainer M. Krug, Aidin Niamir, Patrick J. O'farrell, Sana Okayasu, Ignacio Palomo, Laura M. Pereira, Philip Riordan, Fernando Santos-Martín, Odirilwe Selomane, Yunne Jai Shin, Mireia Valle

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

Scenario analyses have been used in multiple science-policy assessments to better understand complex plausible futures. Scenario archetype approaches are based on the fact that many future scenarios have similar underlying storylines, assumptions, and trends in drivers of change, which allows for grouping of scenarios into typologies, or archetypes, facilitating comparisons between a large range of studies. The use of scenario archetypes in environmental assessments foregrounds important policy questions and can be used to codesign interventions tackling future sustainability issues. Recently, scenario archetypes were used in four regional assessments and one ongoing global assessment within the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). The aim of these assessments was to provide decision makers with policy-relevant knowledge about the state of biodiversity, ecosystems, and the contributions they provide to people. This paper reflects on the usefulness of the scenario archetype approach within science-policy processes, drawing on the experience from the IPBES assessments. Using a thematic analysis of (a) survey data collected from experts involved in the archetype analyses across IPBES assessments, (b) notes from IPBES workshops, and (c) regional assessment chapter texts, we synthesize the benefits, challenges, and frontiers of applying the scenario archetype approach in a science-policy process. Scenario archetypes were perceived to allow syntheses of large amounts of information for scientific, practice-, and policy-related purposes, streamline key messages from multiple scenario studies, and facilitate communication of them to end users. In terms of challenges, they were perceived as subjective in their interpretation, oversimplifying information, having a limited applicability across scales, and concealing contextual information and novel narratives. Finally, our results highlight what methodologies, applications, and frontiers in archetype-based research should be explored in the future. These advances can assist the design of future large-scale sustainability-related assessment processes, aiming to better support decisions and interventions for equitable and sustainable futures.

Original languageEnglish
Article number35
JournalEcology and Society
Volume24
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Oct 2019

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sustainability
biodiversity
environmental assessment
policy
science
typology
ecosystem service
communication
methodology
ecosystem
decision
comparison
trend
analysis

Keywords

  • Assessment
  • Biodiversity
  • Decision making
  • Ecosystem services
  • Futures
  • Nature
  • Regional
  • Scenarios

Cite this

Sitas, N., Harmáčková, Z. V., Anticamara, J. A., Arneth, A., Badola, R., Biggs, R., ... Valle, M. (2019). Exploring the usefulness of scenario archetypes in science-policy processes: Experience across IPBES assessments. Ecology and Society, 24(3), [35]. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-11039-240335
Sitas, Nadia ; Harmáčková, Zuzana V. ; Anticamara, Jonathan A. ; Arneth, Almut ; Badola, Ruchi ; Biggs, Reinette ; Blanchard, Ryan ; Brotons, Lluis ; Cantele, Matthew ; Coetzer, Kaera ; Dasgupta, Rajarshi ; Den Belder, Eefje ; Ghosh, Sonali ; Guisan, Antoine ; Gundimeda, Haripriya ; Hamann, Maike ; Harrison, Paula A. ; Hashimoto, Shizuka ; Hauck, Jennifer ; Klatt, Brian J. ; Kok, Kasper ; Krug, Rainer M. ; Niamir, Aidin ; O'farrell, Patrick J. ; Okayasu, Sana ; Palomo, Ignacio ; Pereira, Laura M. ; Riordan, Philip ; Santos-Martín, Fernando ; Selomane, Odirilwe ; Shin, Yunne Jai ; Valle, Mireia. / Exploring the usefulness of scenario archetypes in science-policy processes: Experience across IPBES assessments. In: Ecology and Society. 2019 ; Vol. 24, No. 3.
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abstract = "Scenario analyses have been used in multiple science-policy assessments to better understand complex plausible futures. Scenario archetype approaches are based on the fact that many future scenarios have similar underlying storylines, assumptions, and trends in drivers of change, which allows for grouping of scenarios into typologies, or archetypes, facilitating comparisons between a large range of studies. The use of scenario archetypes in environmental assessments foregrounds important policy questions and can be used to codesign interventions tackling future sustainability issues. Recently, scenario archetypes were used in four regional assessments and one ongoing global assessment within the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). The aim of these assessments was to provide decision makers with policy-relevant knowledge about the state of biodiversity, ecosystems, and the contributions they provide to people. This paper reflects on the usefulness of the scenario archetype approach within science-policy processes, drawing on the experience from the IPBES assessments. Using a thematic analysis of (a) survey data collected from experts involved in the archetype analyses across IPBES assessments, (b) notes from IPBES workshops, and (c) regional assessment chapter texts, we synthesize the benefits, challenges, and frontiers of applying the scenario archetype approach in a science-policy process. Scenario archetypes were perceived to allow syntheses of large amounts of information for scientific, practice-, and policy-related purposes, streamline key messages from multiple scenario studies, and facilitate communication of them to end users. In terms of challenges, they were perceived as subjective in their interpretation, oversimplifying information, having a limited applicability across scales, and concealing contextual information and novel narratives. Finally, our results highlight what methodologies, applications, and frontiers in archetype-based research should be explored in the future. These advances can assist the design of future large-scale sustainability-related assessment processes, aiming to better support decisions and interventions for equitable and sustainable futures.",
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author = "Nadia Sitas and Harm{\'a}čkov{\'a}, {Zuzana V.} and Anticamara, {Jonathan A.} and Almut Arneth and Ruchi Badola and Reinette Biggs and Ryan Blanchard and Lluis Brotons and Matthew Cantele and Kaera Coetzer and Rajarshi Dasgupta and {Den Belder}, Eefje and Sonali Ghosh and Antoine Guisan and Haripriya Gundimeda and Maike Hamann and Harrison, {Paula A.} and Shizuka Hashimoto and Jennifer Hauck and Klatt, {Brian J.} and Kasper Kok and Krug, {Rainer M.} and Aidin Niamir and O'farrell, {Patrick J.} and Sana Okayasu and Ignacio Palomo and Pereira, {Laura M.} and Philip Riordan and Fernando Santos-Mart{\'i}n and Odirilwe Selomane and Shin, {Yunne Jai} and Mireia Valle",
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Sitas, N, Harmáčková, ZV, Anticamara, JA, Arneth, A, Badola, R, Biggs, R, Blanchard, R, Brotons, L, Cantele, M, Coetzer, K, Dasgupta, R, Den Belder, E, Ghosh, S, Guisan, A, Gundimeda, H, Hamann, M, Harrison, PA, Hashimoto, S, Hauck, J, Klatt, BJ, Kok, K, Krug, RM, Niamir, A, O'farrell, PJ, Okayasu, S, Palomo, I, Pereira, LM, Riordan, P, Santos-Martín, F, Selomane, O, Shin, YJ & Valle, M 2019, 'Exploring the usefulness of scenario archetypes in science-policy processes: Experience across IPBES assessments' Ecology and Society, vol. 24, no. 3, 35. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-11039-240335

Exploring the usefulness of scenario archetypes in science-policy processes: Experience across IPBES assessments. / Sitas, Nadia; Harmáčková, Zuzana V.; Anticamara, Jonathan A.; Arneth, Almut; Badola, Ruchi; Biggs, Reinette; Blanchard, Ryan; Brotons, Lluis; Cantele, Matthew; Coetzer, Kaera; Dasgupta, Rajarshi; Den Belder, Eefje; Ghosh, Sonali; Guisan, Antoine; Gundimeda, Haripriya; Hamann, Maike; Harrison, Paula A.; Hashimoto, Shizuka; Hauck, Jennifer; Klatt, Brian J.; Kok, Kasper; Krug, Rainer M.; Niamir, Aidin; O'farrell, Patrick J.; Okayasu, Sana; Palomo, Ignacio; Pereira, Laura M.; Riordan, Philip; Santos-Martín, Fernando; Selomane, Odirilwe; Shin, Yunne Jai; Valle, Mireia.

In: Ecology and Society, Vol. 24, No. 3, 35, 10.2019.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Exploring the usefulness of scenario archetypes in science-policy processes: Experience across IPBES assessments

AU - Sitas, Nadia

AU - Harmáčková, Zuzana V.

AU - Anticamara, Jonathan A.

AU - Arneth, Almut

AU - Badola, Ruchi

AU - Biggs, Reinette

AU - Blanchard, Ryan

AU - Brotons, Lluis

AU - Cantele, Matthew

AU - Coetzer, Kaera

AU - Dasgupta, Rajarshi

AU - Den Belder, Eefje

AU - Ghosh, Sonali

AU - Guisan, Antoine

AU - Gundimeda, Haripriya

AU - Hamann, Maike

AU - Harrison, Paula A.

AU - Hashimoto, Shizuka

AU - Hauck, Jennifer

AU - Klatt, Brian J.

AU - Kok, Kasper

AU - Krug, Rainer M.

AU - Niamir, Aidin

AU - O'farrell, Patrick J.

AU - Okayasu, Sana

AU - Palomo, Ignacio

AU - Pereira, Laura M.

AU - Riordan, Philip

AU - Santos-Martín, Fernando

AU - Selomane, Odirilwe

AU - Shin, Yunne Jai

AU - Valle, Mireia

PY - 2019/10

Y1 - 2019/10

N2 - Scenario analyses have been used in multiple science-policy assessments to better understand complex plausible futures. Scenario archetype approaches are based on the fact that many future scenarios have similar underlying storylines, assumptions, and trends in drivers of change, which allows for grouping of scenarios into typologies, or archetypes, facilitating comparisons between a large range of studies. The use of scenario archetypes in environmental assessments foregrounds important policy questions and can be used to codesign interventions tackling future sustainability issues. Recently, scenario archetypes were used in four regional assessments and one ongoing global assessment within the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). The aim of these assessments was to provide decision makers with policy-relevant knowledge about the state of biodiversity, ecosystems, and the contributions they provide to people. This paper reflects on the usefulness of the scenario archetype approach within science-policy processes, drawing on the experience from the IPBES assessments. Using a thematic analysis of (a) survey data collected from experts involved in the archetype analyses across IPBES assessments, (b) notes from IPBES workshops, and (c) regional assessment chapter texts, we synthesize the benefits, challenges, and frontiers of applying the scenario archetype approach in a science-policy process. Scenario archetypes were perceived to allow syntheses of large amounts of information for scientific, practice-, and policy-related purposes, streamline key messages from multiple scenario studies, and facilitate communication of them to end users. In terms of challenges, they were perceived as subjective in their interpretation, oversimplifying information, having a limited applicability across scales, and concealing contextual information and novel narratives. Finally, our results highlight what methodologies, applications, and frontiers in archetype-based research should be explored in the future. These advances can assist the design of future large-scale sustainability-related assessment processes, aiming to better support decisions and interventions for equitable and sustainable futures.

AB - Scenario analyses have been used in multiple science-policy assessments to better understand complex plausible futures. Scenario archetype approaches are based on the fact that many future scenarios have similar underlying storylines, assumptions, and trends in drivers of change, which allows for grouping of scenarios into typologies, or archetypes, facilitating comparisons between a large range of studies. The use of scenario archetypes in environmental assessments foregrounds important policy questions and can be used to codesign interventions tackling future sustainability issues. Recently, scenario archetypes were used in four regional assessments and one ongoing global assessment within the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). The aim of these assessments was to provide decision makers with policy-relevant knowledge about the state of biodiversity, ecosystems, and the contributions they provide to people. This paper reflects on the usefulness of the scenario archetype approach within science-policy processes, drawing on the experience from the IPBES assessments. Using a thematic analysis of (a) survey data collected from experts involved in the archetype analyses across IPBES assessments, (b) notes from IPBES workshops, and (c) regional assessment chapter texts, we synthesize the benefits, challenges, and frontiers of applying the scenario archetype approach in a science-policy process. Scenario archetypes were perceived to allow syntheses of large amounts of information for scientific, practice-, and policy-related purposes, streamline key messages from multiple scenario studies, and facilitate communication of them to end users. In terms of challenges, they were perceived as subjective in their interpretation, oversimplifying information, having a limited applicability across scales, and concealing contextual information and novel narratives. Finally, our results highlight what methodologies, applications, and frontiers in archetype-based research should be explored in the future. These advances can assist the design of future large-scale sustainability-related assessment processes, aiming to better support decisions and interventions for equitable and sustainable futures.

KW - Assessment

KW - Biodiversity

KW - Decision making

KW - Ecosystem services

KW - Futures

KW - Nature

KW - Regional

KW - Scenarios

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DO - 10.5751/ES-11039-240335

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JO - Ecology and Society

JF - Ecology and Society

SN - 1708-3087

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ER -