Exploring spatial patterns of human–bear conflict in southwestern Iran due to future land-use change

Understanding the spatial patterns of human-wildlife conflict is crucial for fostering coexistence in landscapes shared between people and wildlife. Assessing this can be particularly challenging in dynamic landscapes, where land-use changes impact the intensity and spatial distribution of human-wildlife conflict. Focusing on brown bears in southwestern Iran, we assessed past landscape change using remote sensing and simulated future changes using a land-use model. We then coupled these land-use-change analyses with conflict models to predict future conflict hotspots until 2040. Finally, we used a spatial absorbing Markov chain framework to explore how conflict might affect bear mortality. Between 2002 and 2023, forests and rangelands declined by 6.6 % and 5.9 %, respectively, with further decreases of 10.1 % and 10.6 % projected until 2040. In contrast, cropland, orchards, and built-up areas were projected to increase substantially until 2040. Our conflict models suggested that the probability of bear damage was highest in the northern and western parts of the landscape, and was projected to increase, especially where orchards and croplands are expanding to create a fragmented interface with forests adjacent to protected areas. Due to conflict, bears face a moderate mortality risk outside protected areas, suggesting that expanding conflict-prone land uses (e.g., orchards and croplands) and corridors between protected areas may act as ecological traps. Collectively, our findings highlight the need for proactive conflict management and considering current and future conflict hotspots to design multiple-use landscapes that minimize conflict risk and promote coexistence.