Explicit Consideration of Temperature Improves Predictions of Toxicokinetic−Toxicodynamic Models for Flupyradifurone and Imidacloprid in Gammarus pulex

A. Mangold-Döring*, A. Huang, E.H. van Nes, A. Focks, P.J. van den Brink

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

10 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In the face of global climate change, where temperature fluctuations and the frequency of extreme weather events are increasing, it is needed to evaluate the impact of temperature on the ecological risk assessment of chemicals. Current state-of-the-art mechanistic effect models, such as toxicokinetic−toxicodynamic (TK−TD) models, often do not explicitly consider temperature as a modulating factor. This study implemented the effect of temperature in a widely used modeling framework, the General Unified Threshold model for Survival (GUTS). We tested the model using data from toxicokinetic and toxicity experiments with Gammarus pulex exposed to the insecticides imidacloprid and flupyradifurone. The experiments revealed increased TK rates with increasing temperature and
increased toxicity under chronic exposures. Using the widely used Arrhenius equation, we could include the temperature influence into the modeling. By further testing of different model approaches, differences in the temperature scaling of TK and TD model parameters could be identified, urging further investigations of the underlying mechanisms. Finally, our results show that predictions of TK−TD models improve if we include the toxicity modulating effect of temperature explicitly.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)15920-15929
JournalEnvironmental science & technology
Volume56
Issue number22
Early online date25 Oct 2022
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 15 Nov 2022

Keywords

  • TK−TD
  • effect modeling
  • GUTS

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