Explainable and Effective Process Remaining Time Prediction Using Feature-Informed Cascade Prediction Model

Na Guo, Cong Liu, Caihong Li, Qingtian Zeng, Chun Ouyang, Qingzhi Liu, Xixi Lu

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

Predictive Process Monitoring aims to predict the future information of ongoing process executions by leveraging machine and deep learning techniques. One of the tasks is known as remaining time prediction, which focuses on predicting the remaining time of ongoing cases. Accurate remaining time prediction can be valuable and important for improving business operations or taking timely interventions to prevent delays. For predicting the remaining time, existing work has used deep learning techniques to achieve high prediction accuracy. However, most of these techniques tend to learn very complex models that are difficult to explain. Systematic feature selection approaches may help improve both the prediction accuracy and the explainability of the model. In this paper, we introduce a feature-informed cascade prediction framework to predict the remaining time. Specifically, we first propose an approach that builds a tree of features by systematically estimating their effects on the remaining time prediction. Next, we use the tree to either automatically select an optimal combination of features or to guide users in this selection process. Each selected feature is correlated with its prediction results in our Feature-informed Cascade Prediction Model (FCPM) for explainability. The proposed approach has been implemented and is made publicly available. Using eight public real-life event logs, the proposed approach is compared to the state-of-the-art approaches in terms of prediction accuracy. In addition, it is demonstrated that our approach visualizes the impact of each input feature in the prediction of individual cases, producing explanations of the prediction results.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)949-962
Number of pages14
JournalIEEE Transactions on Services Computing
Volume17
Issue number3
Early online date15 Jan 2024
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2024

Keywords

  • Business
  • Cascade prediction model
  • Data mining
  • Deep learning
  • Encoding
  • Feature extraction
  • feature selection
  • Hidden Markov models
  • LSTM
  • Predictive models
  • predictive process monitoring
  • remaining time prediction

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