Expert elicitation for the variogram

N.P. Truong; G.B.M. Heuvelink; J.P. Gosling

Expert elicitation for the variogram

N.P. Truong, G.B.M. Heuvelink, J.P. Gosling

PE&RC

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference paper › Academic

Abstract

The variogram is the keystone of Kriging. Much research has been devoted to modelling the variogram from structural analysis of observations. However, there are many instances when the variogram is needed and there are no observations to base on. This can be due to budget constraints, physical or temporal obstacles, or a demand for a priori variogram in Bayesian geostatistics and spatial sampling design. Using expert knowledge that is elicited with a formal statistical expert elicitation procedure is suggested. In this study, we designed a protocol for a wellstructured elicitation procedure to elicit the variogram from expert knowledge. The protocol has two main stages: elicitation of the marginal probability distribution and elicitation of the variogram. We built a web-based tool to facilitate the procedure. A case study was carried out to quantify spatial accuracy of a legacy map of the volumetric soil water content at field capacity. Expert elicitation returns a variogram that has a Matérn model shape with nugget = 0.45, partial sill = 54.57, range = 25410 meters and kappa = 0.40. The results show that the online elicitation tool satisfactorily captured expert opinion although, currently, it is only a prototype that needs to be further developed.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Proceedings of the 10th International Symposium on Spatial Accuracy Assessment in Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences, 10-13 July 2012, Florianopolos, Brazil
Editors	C. Vieira, V. Bogorny, A. Ribeiro Aquino
Publisher	Federal University of Santa Catarina
Pages	251-256
Publication status	Published - 2012
Event	10th International Symposium on Spatial Accuracy Assessment in Natural Resources and Environmental SciencesFlorianopolos, SC, Brazil - Duration: 10 Jul 2012 → 13 Jul 2012

Conference

Conference	10th International Symposium on Spatial Accuracy Assessment in Natural Resources and Environmental SciencesFlorianopolos, SC, Brazil
Period	10/07/12 → 13/07/12

Access to Document

https://edepot.wur.nl/243082

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Truong, N. P., Heuvelink, G. B. M., & Gosling, J. P. (2012). Expert elicitation for the variogram. In C. Vieira, V. Bogorny, & A. Ribeiro Aquino (Eds.), Proceedings of the 10th International Symposium on Spatial Accuracy Assessment in Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences, 10-13 July 2012, Florianopolos, Brazil (pp. 251-256). Federal University of Santa Catarina. https://edepot.wur.nl/243082

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title = "Expert elicitation for the variogram",

abstract = "The variogram is the keystone of Kriging. Much research has been devoted to modelling the variogram from structural analysis of observations. However, there are many instances when the variogram is needed and there are no observations to base on. This can be due to budget constraints, physical or temporal obstacles, or a demand for a priori variogram in Bayesian geostatistics and spatial sampling design. Using expert knowledge that is elicited with a formal statistical expert elicitation procedure is suggested. In this study, we designed a protocol for a wellstructured elicitation procedure to elicit the variogram from expert knowledge. The protocol has two main stages: elicitation of the marginal probability distribution and elicitation of the variogram. We built a web-based tool to facilitate the procedure. A case study was carried out to quantify spatial accuracy of a legacy map of the volumetric soil water content at field capacity. Expert elicitation returns a variogram that has a Mat{\'e}rn model shape with nugget = 0.45, partial sill = 54.57, range = 25410 meters and kappa = 0.40. The results show that the online elicitation tool satisfactorily captured expert opinion although, currently, it is only a prototype that needs to be further developed.",

author = "N.P. Truong and G.B.M. Heuvelink and J.P. Gosling",

year = "2012",

language = "English",

pages = "251--256",

editor = "C. Vieira and V. Bogorny and {Ribeiro Aquino}, A.",

booktitle = "Proceedings of the 10th International Symposium on Spatial Accuracy Assessment in Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences, 10-13 July 2012, Florianopolos, Brazil",

publisher = "Federal University of Santa Catarina",

note = "10th International Symposium on Spatial Accuracy Assessment in Natural Resources and Environmental SciencesFlorianopolos, SC, Brazil ; Conference date: 10-07-2012 Through 13-07-2012",

}

Truong, NP, Heuvelink, GBM & Gosling, JP 2012, Expert elicitation for the variogram. in C Vieira, V Bogorny & A Ribeiro Aquino (eds), Proceedings of the 10th International Symposium on Spatial Accuracy Assessment in Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences, 10-13 July 2012, Florianopolos, Brazil. Federal University of Santa Catarina, pp. 251-256, 10th International Symposium on Spatial Accuracy Assessment in Natural Resources and Environmental SciencesFlorianopolos, SC, Brazil, 10/07/12. <https://edepot.wur.nl/243082>

Expert elicitation for the variogram. / Truong, N.P.; Heuvelink, G.B.M.; Gosling, J.P.

Proceedings of the 10th International Symposium on Spatial Accuracy Assessment in Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences, 10-13 July 2012, Florianopolos, Brazil. ed. / C. Vieira; V. Bogorny; A. Ribeiro Aquino. Federal University of Santa Catarina, 2012. p. 251-256.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference paper › Academic

TY - GEN

T1 - Expert elicitation for the variogram

AU - Truong, N.P.

AU - Heuvelink, G.B.M.

AU - Gosling, J.P.

PY - 2012

Y1 - 2012

N2 - The variogram is the keystone of Kriging. Much research has been devoted to modelling the variogram from structural analysis of observations. However, there are many instances when the variogram is needed and there are no observations to base on. This can be due to budget constraints, physical or temporal obstacles, or a demand for a priori variogram in Bayesian geostatistics and spatial sampling design. Using expert knowledge that is elicited with a formal statistical expert elicitation procedure is suggested. In this study, we designed a protocol for a wellstructured elicitation procedure to elicit the variogram from expert knowledge. The protocol has two main stages: elicitation of the marginal probability distribution and elicitation of the variogram. We built a web-based tool to facilitate the procedure. A case study was carried out to quantify spatial accuracy of a legacy map of the volumetric soil water content at field capacity. Expert elicitation returns a variogram that has a Matérn model shape with nugget = 0.45, partial sill = 54.57, range = 25410 meters and kappa = 0.40. The results show that the online elicitation tool satisfactorily captured expert opinion although, currently, it is only a prototype that needs to be further developed.

AB - The variogram is the keystone of Kriging. Much research has been devoted to modelling the variogram from structural analysis of observations. However, there are many instances when the variogram is needed and there are no observations to base on. This can be due to budget constraints, physical or temporal obstacles, or a demand for a priori variogram in Bayesian geostatistics and spatial sampling design. Using expert knowledge that is elicited with a formal statistical expert elicitation procedure is suggested. In this study, we designed a protocol for a wellstructured elicitation procedure to elicit the variogram from expert knowledge. The protocol has two main stages: elicitation of the marginal probability distribution and elicitation of the variogram. We built a web-based tool to facilitate the procedure. A case study was carried out to quantify spatial accuracy of a legacy map of the volumetric soil water content at field capacity. Expert elicitation returns a variogram that has a Matérn model shape with nugget = 0.45, partial sill = 54.57, range = 25410 meters and kappa = 0.40. The results show that the online elicitation tool satisfactorily captured expert opinion although, currently, it is only a prototype that needs to be further developed.

M3 - Conference paper

SP - 251

EP - 256

BT - Proceedings of the 10th International Symposium on Spatial Accuracy Assessment in Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences, 10-13 July 2012, Florianopolos, Brazil

A2 - Vieira, C.

A2 - Bogorny, V.

A2 - Ribeiro Aquino, A.

PB - Federal University of Santa Catarina

T2 - 10th International Symposium on Spatial Accuracy Assessment in Natural Resources and Environmental SciencesFlorianopolos, SC, Brazil

Y2 - 10 July 2012 through 13 July 2012

ER -