Ex-ante-onderzoek 8e Actieprogramma Nitraatrichtlijn: Effecten van maatregelpakketten op de nutriëntenbelasting van grond- en oppervlaktewater, economie op bedrijfsniveau en overige indicatoren

In preparation for the Eighth Action Programme Nitrates Directive (2026–2029), an ex-ante assessment has been carried out, assessing the effects of a package of measures on water quality and the economic impact at farm level. In this study, various alternatives of the package, which differ in the nitrogen application standards, were analysed. The calculated nitrate concentrations for the package for the years 2030 and 2045 was compared with those in the Reference scenario, based on the current policy (including the measures from the Seventh Action Programme and the current Derogation Decision). According to the calculations, the average nitrate concentration in groundwater in the southern sand and loess regions exceeds the maxim um threshold value of 50 mg/l for nitrate in both the Reference scenario and the alternatives of the package of measures. In the central and northern sand, clay, and peat regions, the calculated concentrations are below 50 mg /l. The effect of the measure package compared to the Reference scenario is limited. In addition, it is calculated that the national average nitrogen load on surface water from leaching from agricultural land decreases by up to 5% in the measure package compared to the Reference scenario, at the scale of the 21 water authorities. The effect on phosphorus load is limited. In the calculation variant with a 20% reduction in the total nitrogen application standard, the nitrogen leaching and runoff targets from agricultural fields are met in 63% of all regional WFD water bodies; for phosphorus, this is 55%. This represents an increase of 9% for nitrogen and 3% for phosphorus compared to the Reference scenario. The additional effect of supplementary measures in groundwater protection zones and vulnerable watercourses has not yet been included. The various measure packages have also been calculated from a farm economics perspective. The income effects vary significantly by region. In general, the 8th AP leads to an increase in income on arable farms on clay, due to the smaller buffer zones. On arable farms in the other Sand region, the income effects are limited. Due to the 1:3 rotation with rust crops and depending on the precise specification of the reduction in nitrogen application standards, the income effects on arable and vegetable farms in South Sand are considerably greater. The income effects of the 8th AP on dairy farms also vary significantly by region. This is explained by the reduction in the nitrogen application standard (which varies by region) and the reduction in grassland area (which is included in all calculation variants of the 8th AP). These measures lead to a decrease in feed production on the farm and an increase in the cost of purchased feed. The effects of gaseous emissions have been assessed quantitatively: the impact of the measure package on gaseous emissions compared to the Reference scenario is both positive and negative, depending on the level of reduction in nitrogen application standards. The effects on soil quality, biodiversity, desiccation, and waterlogging have been assessed based on expert judgement. On a national scale, the expected impacts of the possible measures are estimated to be small.