Evaluating vaccination strategies to control foot and mouth disease: a model comparison study

S.E. Roche, M.G. Garner, R.L. Sanson, C. Cook, C. Birch, J.A. Backer, C. Dube, K.A. Patyk, M.A. Stevenson, Z.D. Yu

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

24 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

SUMMARY Simulation models can offer valuable insights into the effectiveness of different control strategies and act as important decision support tools when comparing and evaluating outbreak scenarios and control strategies. An international modelling study was performed to compare a range of vaccination strategies in the control of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). Modelling groups from five countries (Australia, New Zealand, USA, UK, The Netherlands) participated in the study. Vaccination is increasingly being recognized as a potentially important tool in the control of FMD, although there is considerable uncertainty as to how and when it should be used. We sought to compare model outputs and assess the effectiveness of different vaccination strategies in the control of FMD. Using a standardized outbreak scenario based on data from an FMD exercise in the UK in 2010, the study showed general agreement between respective models in terms of the effectiveness of vaccination. Under the scenario assumptions, all models demonstrated that vaccination with 'stamping-out' of infected premises led to a significant reduction in predicted epidemic size and duration compared to the 'stamping-out' strategy alone. For all models there were advantages in vaccinating cattle-only rather than all species, using 3-km vaccination rings immediately around infected premises, and starting vaccination earlier in the control programme. This study has shown that certain vaccination strategies are robust even to substantial differences in model configurations. This result should increase end-user confidence in conclusions drawn from model outputs. These results can be used to support and develop effective policies for FMD control.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1256-1275
JournalEpidemiology and Infection
Volume143
Issue number6
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2015

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Foot-and-Mouth Disease
Vaccination
Disease Outbreaks
New Zealand
Netherlands
Uncertainty

Keywords

  • emergency vaccination
  • simulation-model
  • epidemic
  • spread
  • australia
  • outbreak

Cite this

Roche, S. E., Garner, M. G., Sanson, R. L., Cook, C., Birch, C., Backer, J. A., ... Yu, Z. D. (2015). Evaluating vaccination strategies to control foot and mouth disease: a model comparison study. Epidemiology and Infection, 143(6), 1256-1275. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268814001927
Roche, S.E. ; Garner, M.G. ; Sanson, R.L. ; Cook, C. ; Birch, C. ; Backer, J.A. ; Dube, C. ; Patyk, K.A. ; Stevenson, M.A. ; Yu, Z.D. / Evaluating vaccination strategies to control foot and mouth disease: a model comparison study. In: Epidemiology and Infection. 2015 ; Vol. 143, No. 6. pp. 1256-1275.
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Roche, SE, Garner, MG, Sanson, RL, Cook, C, Birch, C, Backer, JA, Dube, C, Patyk, KA, Stevenson, MA & Yu, ZD 2015, 'Evaluating vaccination strategies to control foot and mouth disease: a model comparison study', Epidemiology and Infection, vol. 143, no. 6, pp. 1256-1275. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268814001927

Evaluating vaccination strategies to control foot and mouth disease: a model comparison study. / Roche, S.E.; Garner, M.G.; Sanson, R.L.; Cook, C.; Birch, C.; Backer, J.A.; Dube, C.; Patyk, K.A.; Stevenson, M.A.; Yu, Z.D.

In: Epidemiology and Infection, Vol. 143, No. 6, 2015, p. 1256-1275.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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T1 - Evaluating vaccination strategies to control foot and mouth disease: a model comparison study

AU - Roche, S.E.

AU - Garner, M.G.

AU - Sanson, R.L.

AU - Cook, C.

AU - Birch, C.

AU - Backer, J.A.

AU - Dube, C.

AU - Patyk, K.A.

AU - Stevenson, M.A.

AU - Yu, Z.D.

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N2 - SUMMARY Simulation models can offer valuable insights into the effectiveness of different control strategies and act as important decision support tools when comparing and evaluating outbreak scenarios and control strategies. An international modelling study was performed to compare a range of vaccination strategies in the control of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). Modelling groups from five countries (Australia, New Zealand, USA, UK, The Netherlands) participated in the study. Vaccination is increasingly being recognized as a potentially important tool in the control of FMD, although there is considerable uncertainty as to how and when it should be used. We sought to compare model outputs and assess the effectiveness of different vaccination strategies in the control of FMD. Using a standardized outbreak scenario based on data from an FMD exercise in the UK in 2010, the study showed general agreement between respective models in terms of the effectiveness of vaccination. Under the scenario assumptions, all models demonstrated that vaccination with 'stamping-out' of infected premises led to a significant reduction in predicted epidemic size and duration compared to the 'stamping-out' strategy alone. For all models there were advantages in vaccinating cattle-only rather than all species, using 3-km vaccination rings immediately around infected premises, and starting vaccination earlier in the control programme. This study has shown that certain vaccination strategies are robust even to substantial differences in model configurations. This result should increase end-user confidence in conclusions drawn from model outputs. These results can be used to support and develop effective policies for FMD control.

AB - SUMMARY Simulation models can offer valuable insights into the effectiveness of different control strategies and act as important decision support tools when comparing and evaluating outbreak scenarios and control strategies. An international modelling study was performed to compare a range of vaccination strategies in the control of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). Modelling groups from five countries (Australia, New Zealand, USA, UK, The Netherlands) participated in the study. Vaccination is increasingly being recognized as a potentially important tool in the control of FMD, although there is considerable uncertainty as to how and when it should be used. We sought to compare model outputs and assess the effectiveness of different vaccination strategies in the control of FMD. Using a standardized outbreak scenario based on data from an FMD exercise in the UK in 2010, the study showed general agreement between respective models in terms of the effectiveness of vaccination. Under the scenario assumptions, all models demonstrated that vaccination with 'stamping-out' of infected premises led to a significant reduction in predicted epidemic size and duration compared to the 'stamping-out' strategy alone. For all models there were advantages in vaccinating cattle-only rather than all species, using 3-km vaccination rings immediately around infected premises, and starting vaccination earlier in the control programme. This study has shown that certain vaccination strategies are robust even to substantial differences in model configurations. This result should increase end-user confidence in conclusions drawn from model outputs. These results can be used to support and develop effective policies for FMD control.

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KW - simulation-model

KW - epidemic

KW - spread

KW - australia

KW - outbreak

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DO - 10.1017/S0950268814001927

M3 - Article

VL - 143

SP - 1256

EP - 1275

JO - Epidemiology and Infection

JF - Epidemiology and Infection

SN - 0950-2688

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ER -