Evaluating the ecological realism of plant species distribution models with ecological indicator values

Marjon Hellegers*, Wim A. Ozinga, Arjen Hinsberg, Mark A.J. Huijbregts, Stephan M. Hennekens, Joop H.J. Schaminée, Jürgen Dengler, Aafke M. Schipper

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

Species distribution models (SDMs) are routinely applied to assess current as well as future species distributions, for example to assess impacts of future environmental change on biodiversity or to underpin conservation planning. It has been repeatedly emphasized that SDMs should be evaluated based not only on their goodness of fit to the data, but also on the realism of the modeled ecological responses. However, possibilities for the latter are hampered by limited knowledge on the true responses as well as a lack of quantitative evaluation methods. Here we compared modeled niche optima obtained from European-scale SDMs of 1476 terrestrial vascular plant species with empirical ecological indicator values indicating the preferences of plant species for key environmental conditions. For each plant species we first fitted an ensemble SDM including three modeling techniques (GLM, GAM and BRT) and extracted niche optima for climate, soil, land use and nitrogen deposition variables with a large explanatory power for the occurrence of that species. We then compared these SDM-derived niche optima with the ecological indicator values by means of bivariate correlation analysis. We found weak to moderate correlations in the expected direction between the SDM-derived niche optima and ecological indicator values. The strongest correlation occurred between the modeled optima for growing degree days and the ecological indicator values for temperature. Correlations were weaker for SDM-derived niche optima with a more distal relationship to ecological indicator values (notably precipitation and soil moisture). Further, correlations were consistently highest for BRT, followed by GLM and GAM. Our method gives insight into the ecological realism of modeled niche optima and projected core habitats and can be used to improve SDMs by making a more informed selection of environmental variables and modeling techniques.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)161-170
JournalEcography
Volume43
Issue number1
Early online date22 Oct 2019
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jan 2020

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biogeography
niche
niches
plant species
distribution
indicator
environmental factors
conservation planning
methodology
vascular plant
heat sums
vascular plants
modeling
environmental change
planning
soil moisture
land use
environmental conditions
soil water
biodiversity

Keywords

  • BioScore
  • ecological niche model
  • Ellenberg indicator values
  • model selection
  • scale dependency
  • validation

Cite this

Hellegers, Marjon ; Ozinga, Wim A. ; Hinsberg, Arjen ; Huijbregts, Mark A.J. ; Hennekens, Stephan M. ; Schaminée, Joop H.J. ; Dengler, Jürgen ; Schipper, Aafke M. / Evaluating the ecological realism of plant species distribution models with ecological indicator values. In: Ecography. 2020 ; Vol. 43, No. 1. pp. 161-170.
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abstract = "Species distribution models (SDMs) are routinely applied to assess current as well as future species distributions, for example to assess impacts of future environmental change on biodiversity or to underpin conservation planning. It has been repeatedly emphasized that SDMs should be evaluated based not only on their goodness of fit to the data, but also on the realism of the modeled ecological responses. However, possibilities for the latter are hampered by limited knowledge on the true responses as well as a lack of quantitative evaluation methods. Here we compared modeled niche optima obtained from European-scale SDMs of 1476 terrestrial vascular plant species with empirical ecological indicator values indicating the preferences of plant species for key environmental conditions. For each plant species we first fitted an ensemble SDM including three modeling techniques (GLM, GAM and BRT) and extracted niche optima for climate, soil, land use and nitrogen deposition variables with a large explanatory power for the occurrence of that species. We then compared these SDM-derived niche optima with the ecological indicator values by means of bivariate correlation analysis. We found weak to moderate correlations in the expected direction between the SDM-derived niche optima and ecological indicator values. The strongest correlation occurred between the modeled optima for growing degree days and the ecological indicator values for temperature. Correlations were weaker for SDM-derived niche optima with a more distal relationship to ecological indicator values (notably precipitation and soil moisture). Further, correlations were consistently highest for BRT, followed by GLM and GAM. Our method gives insight into the ecological realism of modeled niche optima and projected core habitats and can be used to improve SDMs by making a more informed selection of environmental variables and modeling techniques.",
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Evaluating the ecological realism of plant species distribution models with ecological indicator values. / Hellegers, Marjon; Ozinga, Wim A.; Hinsberg, Arjen; Huijbregts, Mark A.J.; Hennekens, Stephan M.; Schaminée, Joop H.J.; Dengler, Jürgen; Schipper, Aafke M.

In: Ecography, Vol. 43, No. 1, 01.2020, p. 161-170.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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T1 - Evaluating the ecological realism of plant species distribution models with ecological indicator values

AU - Hellegers, Marjon

AU - Ozinga, Wim A.

AU - Hinsberg, Arjen

AU - Huijbregts, Mark A.J.

AU - Hennekens, Stephan M.

AU - Schaminée, Joop H.J.

AU - Dengler, Jürgen

AU - Schipper, Aafke M.

PY - 2020/1

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AB - Species distribution models (SDMs) are routinely applied to assess current as well as future species distributions, for example to assess impacts of future environmental change on biodiversity or to underpin conservation planning. It has been repeatedly emphasized that SDMs should be evaluated based not only on their goodness of fit to the data, but also on the realism of the modeled ecological responses. However, possibilities for the latter are hampered by limited knowledge on the true responses as well as a lack of quantitative evaluation methods. Here we compared modeled niche optima obtained from European-scale SDMs of 1476 terrestrial vascular plant species with empirical ecological indicator values indicating the preferences of plant species for key environmental conditions. For each plant species we first fitted an ensemble SDM including three modeling techniques (GLM, GAM and BRT) and extracted niche optima for climate, soil, land use and nitrogen deposition variables with a large explanatory power for the occurrence of that species. We then compared these SDM-derived niche optima with the ecological indicator values by means of bivariate correlation analysis. We found weak to moderate correlations in the expected direction between the SDM-derived niche optima and ecological indicator values. The strongest correlation occurred between the modeled optima for growing degree days and the ecological indicator values for temperature. Correlations were weaker for SDM-derived niche optima with a more distal relationship to ecological indicator values (notably precipitation and soil moisture). Further, correlations were consistently highest for BRT, followed by GLM and GAM. Our method gives insight into the ecological realism of modeled niche optima and projected core habitats and can be used to improve SDMs by making a more informed selection of environmental variables and modeling techniques.

KW - BioScore

KW - ecological niche model

KW - Ellenberg indicator values

KW - model selection

KW - scale dependency

KW - validation

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DO - 10.1111/ecog.04291

M3 - Article

VL - 43

SP - 161

EP - 170

JO - Ecography

JF - Ecography

SN - 0906-7590

IS - 1

ER -