European forest sector outlook studies II: Switzerland in the European context

The European Forest Sector Outlook Study II (EFSOS II) is the latest in a series of outlook studies by United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), providing an outlook for the European forest sector for the period 2010–2030. The study is structured around a reference scenario and four policy scenarios, implemented in a set of mathematical models. The paper summarises the methodology and main outcomes for Central Europe, discusses specific Swiss aspects, the usefulness of such outlook results at the national level and possible future improvements. The picture for Switzerland is one broadly characterised by opportunities, facilitated by a favourable starting point with regard to the forest resources and increasing demand in the surrounding countries. However, a preliminary comparison with national supply scenarios reveals some important differences with regard to increment and mortality and thus possibilities for increased supply. The time between successive new studies should therefore be used to update the underlying data sources, make comparisons to national studies and improve understanding of the models, all in close cooperation with the countries.