Estimating costs of nature management in the European Union: Exploration modelling for PBL’s Nature Outlook

A cost model was developed for the Nature Outlook of PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.This cost model estimates one-off and recurrent costs of natural vegetation based on Corine land cover typesthroughout Europe. Cost estimates were made for the base year 2000 and future scenarios, including aTrend scenario based on current EU policies and normative perspectives, including Strengthening CulturalIdentity (SCI), Allowing Nature to Find its Way (NFW), Going with the Economic Flow (GEF) and Workingwith Nature (WWN). These scenarios all have a time horizon of 2050. To estimate various costs acomprehensive data analysis was carried out and a cost model was developed based on the IKN model forDutch Nature Policy. The model estimates costs of recurrent management in the base year on € 5.6 billionper year in the EU-28. Costs of recurrent management within the Natura 2000 network is estimated on € 3.5billion per year. Recurrent management costs in 2050 in the Trend scenario were estimated on € 5.2 billionper year. One-off costs of land purchase are estimated at € 450 per hectare per year and construction costs€ 1028 per hectare per year. One-off costs of the perspectives are 5.09 (SCI), 6.56 (NFW), 6.20 (GEF) and9.79 billion euro per year (WWN)