Environmental evaluation of three alternative futures for organic dairy in Denmark.

Objective of this study was to explore sustainability of scenarios for organic dairy farming based on visions and goals of the future, by parameterization at farm level. The scenarios were in agreement with the scope of principles for organic farming; health, ecology, fairness and care. Scenarios were designed using stakeholder and expert opinions and then translate them through choice of relevant production parameters to a farm unit design. This resulted in three vision-based scenarios, one animal welfare (ANW), one environmental (ENV) and one using all possible new technologies to enhance productivity and efficiency (business as usual, BAU). The amount of milk produced per ha was, 9500, 7215 and 5188 kg ECM respectively for BAU, ANW and ENV. Stocking density was 1.41, 1.38, and 0.88 Livestock Units respectively for BAU, ANW and ENV, parallel to large differences in required import of feed. The different organic farms of the future are to be evaluated on the environmental impacts, green house gas (GHG) emissions, nitrogen surplus and energy use, economy, and social acceptance.