Energy transition based on effective energy use in household sector of rural China

Revealing the trends and main drivers of rural energy transition has important implications for building up a clean, efficient and sustainable energy system. Based on physical energy consumption, we measure the effective energy consumption and constructed a provincial panel dataset of rural China from 1990 to 2017. The results show that the energy transition is not only reflected in the growth of fuel consumption and the change of fuel structure, especially the growth of high-quality energy, the diversification of service functions and the convenience of use. The term of effective energy can more accurately measure the level of energy consumption per capita than physical energy. The income per capita, urbanization level and annual average temperature are three main factors impacting energy consumption. Every 1,000 yuan growth in per capita income can increase the consumption of 6 kgce physical energy and 4 kgce effective energy, respectively. Every 1% rise in the urbanization rate of the population can bring a growth of 4.86 kgce physical energy and 1.83 kgce effective energy. 1℃ of rise in average temperature may decrease by 22.3 kgce physical energy and 2.8 kgce effective energy. There are roughly-three levels of transition, the slow transition in the northeast, the forefront transition in the eastern coastal areas and the intermediate level transition in vast central and western regions. According to regional differences, focus should be on increasing the share of renewable energy, improving energy infrastructure and energy efficiency in the future.