EJP SOIL SIMPLE: Deliverable 2.1: Impact of fertiliser use reduction: The case of the European Union

This study provides some insights regarding the potential impacts of reducing nitrogen (N) fertilisation by 20 % in the case of selected crops: wheat, rapeseed, sugar beet, maize and barley. In terms of the geographical scope, this report provides insights for the EU27 and the UK, generated by means of the AGMEMOD model. In general terms, the decline in fertiliser use could induce a decline in yields (unless overfertilisation occurs currently), while the related decline in production could lead to an increase in the prices of the relevant crops. In addition, the reduction in fertiliser application is likely to affect the quality of agricultural production, leading to lower prices at farm-gate level. The net price effect will depend on the size and direction of these opposing impacts, i.e. price increase due to scarcity versus price decline due to quality deterioration. As shown in the scenario simulation, the achievement of the intended 20 % reduction in N fertilisation is expected to result in lower productivity (yields), and subsequently, lower production volumes. Lower supplied volumes affect exports patterns, as well as food self-sufficiency rates. According to the simulation the strongest declines in self-sufficiency rates are projected in the case of rapeseed and barley.