This paper estimates a production function for milk using a generalised method of moments estimator to avoid the endogeneity problem. Using the first-order conditions for profit maximisation, the economic effects for individual Dutch dairy farms of the 2003 EU dairy policy reform are analysed. With an expected milk price decrease of 21 per cent, profit decreases on average by 22 per cent. EU direct payments compensate for roughly 53 per cent of this fall in profit. The profit reduction means that 69 per cent of all small farms have negative income from farming, compared with 15 per cent in the initial situation.