In 2018, the agricultural price tool was (re)developed to determine the potential economic effects of drought on agriculture. This report describes the methodology for linking three calculation models to analyse the effect of drought on agriculture: (1) National Hydrological Model (LHM; (2) Agricom and (3) the agricultural price tool. These models were applied for a reference period based on actual land use and water management and historical data for 1911-2011 for river discharges, precipitation and evapotranspiration. The Delta scenarios have been simulated by adapting the input to represent the socio-economic development and the climate change of the considered scenario. The model-based average potential economic impact calculated is approximately 390m euros per year. The results for the Delta scenarios Warm and Steam show that the economic impact will increase significantly to approximately 670m euros per year in 2050. The results for Pressure and Rest in 2050 show no major difference with the current situation.
|Place of Publication||Wageningen|
|Publisher||Wageningen Economic Research|
|Number of pages||23|
|Publication status||Published - 2019|
|Name||Wageningen Economic Research nota|
Polman, N., Peerlings, J., & van der Vat, M. (2019). Economische effecten van droogte voor landbouw in Nederland: samenvatting. (Wageningen Economic Research nota; No. 2019-038). Wageningen: Wageningen Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.18174/474376