Keywords: Classical swine fever; contagious disease; epidemiological model; sector-level market and trade model; simulation; economic welfare analysis; densely and sparsely populated areas; supplementary animal welfare measures; the Netherlands.
A sector-level and trade market model and a generic, spatial, temporal and stochastic epidemiological model are used to simulate the epidemiological and economic effects of different measures to control classical swine fever (CSF) epidemics in different regions in the Netherlands. The control measures include the current EU legislation (stamping-out infected herds; tracing contact herds and installing quarantine zones), preventive slaughtering or an emergency vaccination strategy with delayed destruction and intra-community trade as additional control measures. In addition, the effects of supplementary animal welfare measures to interrupt piglet production during a CSF epidemic are analysed. Different trade scenarios are simulated: a partial trade ban for the quarantine zones only or a total export ban on all Dutch live pigs. Aggregating the welfare changes of the different stakeholders (pig producers, consumers and government) provides results on the net welfare effect for the Dutch economy.
Economic and epidemiological results suggest that measures to control CSF epidemics should be dependent on geographical circumstances. In a sparsely populated pig area, the measures defined by EU legislation are appropriate, whereas in a densely populated area additional control measures, e.g. emergency vaccination and/or preventive slaughter, are needed. The current political climate favours preventive slaughter for the Dutch situation. Furthermore, the option of supplementary animal welfare measures to interrupt piglet production during the epidemic is rejected on economic grounds. Results indicate that rendering capacities should be reserved for carcasses from infected and preventively slaughtered farms, and used to destroy pig carcasses slaughtered for animal welfare reasons only if capacity permits.
|Qualification||Doctor of Philosophy|
|Award date||24 Apr 2002|
|Place of Publication||S.l.|
|Publication status||Published - 2002|
- classical swine fever virus
- swine fever
- disease transmission
- disease control
- welfare economics
- consumer behaviour
- simulation models