Economic simulation to support investment decisions in pig farming

G.B.C. Backus

    Research output: Thesisexternal PhD, WU

    Abstract

    <p>The study described in this thesis focuses on the development and use of a model that simulates the consequences of long-term investment decisions in pig farming. The thesis is composed of six parts. Chapter 1 deals with a basic review of the literature on strategic planning under risk and uncertainty. A computer-based model for strategic pig farm planning, the Investment Simulation Model (ISM) was developed and described in chapter 2. ISM is a stochastic simulation model, which uses data of the individual farm and also data representing the average Dutch pig farm. Chapter 3 analyzes the effects of the input variables on the outcome of the response variable for the distinguished strategies, using a stochastic approach for these inputs in the experimental design. They were formalized in a regression metamodel for each replacement strategy. Chapter 4 describes an evaluation procedure that was developed for testing ISM under operational use. In chapter 5 the expected economic consequences of farm expansion plans on future economic viability were estimated for 24 pig farms, using ISM. The concluding chapter provides a general discussion about the choices that were made in modelling the strategic planning process, the experiences gained, and the possibilities for future research.
    Original languageEnglish
    QualificationDoctor of Philosophy
    Awarding Institution
    Supervisors/Advisors
    • Dijkhuizen, A.A., Promotor, External person
    • Renkema, J.A., Promotor
    • Timmer, G.T., Promotor, External person
    Award date6 Jun 1994
    Place of PublicationS.l.
    Publisher
    Print ISBNs9789054852650
    Publication statusPublished - 1994

    Keywords

    • pigs
    • farm results
    • profitability
    • productivity
    • animal husbandry
    • models
    • research
    • management
    • methodology
    • investment decisions

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