Early-warning signals for critical transitions

M. Scheffer; J. Bascompte; W.A. Brock; V. Brovkin; S.R. Carpenter; V. Dakos; H. Held; E.H. van Nes; M. Rietkerk; G. Sugihara

doi:10.1038/nature08227

Early-warning signals for critical transitions

M. Scheffer, J. Bascompte, W.A. Brock, V. Brovkin, S.R. Carpenter, V. Dakos, H. Held, E.H. van Nes, M. Rietkerk, G. Sugihara

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

3268 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Complex dynamical systems, ranging from ecosystems to financial markets and the climate, can have tipping points at which a sudden shift to a contrasting dynamical regime may occur. Although predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult, work in different scientific fields is now suggesting the existence of generic early-warning signals that may indicate for a wide class of systems if a critical threshold is approaching

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	53-59
Journal	Nature
Volume	461
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08227
Publication status	Published - 2009

Keywords

abrupt climate-change
catastrophic regime shifts
self-organized patchiness
critical slowing-down
thermohaline circulation
epileptic seizures
time-series
ecosystems
models
thresholds

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1038/nature08227

Cite this

@article{68cee5a97b134447955011084fd8a809,

title = "Early-warning signals for critical transitions",

abstract = "Complex dynamical systems, ranging from ecosystems to financial markets and the climate, can have tipping points at which a sudden shift to a contrasting dynamical regime may occur. Although predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult, work in different scientific fields is now suggesting the existence of generic early-warning signals that may indicate for a wide class of systems if a critical threshold is approaching",

keywords = "abrupt climate-change, catastrophic regime shifts, self-organized patchiness, critical slowing-down, thermohaline circulation, epileptic seizures, time-series, ecosystems, models, thresholds",

author = "M. Scheffer and J. Bascompte and W.A. Brock and V. Brovkin and S.R. Carpenter and V. Dakos and H. Held and {van Nes}, E.H. and M. Rietkerk and G. Sugihara",

year = "2009",

doi = "10.1038/nature08227",

language = "English",

volume = "461",

pages = "53--59",

journal = "Nature",

issn = "0028-0836",

publisher = "Nature",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Early-warning signals for critical transitions

AU - Scheffer, M.

AU - Bascompte, J.

AU - Brock, W.A.

AU - Brovkin, V.

AU - Carpenter, S.R.

AU - Dakos, V.

AU - Held, H.

AU - van Nes, E.H.

AU - Rietkerk, M.

AU - Sugihara, G.

PY - 2009

Y1 - 2009

N2 - Complex dynamical systems, ranging from ecosystems to financial markets and the climate, can have tipping points at which a sudden shift to a contrasting dynamical regime may occur. Although predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult, work in different scientific fields is now suggesting the existence of generic early-warning signals that may indicate for a wide class of systems if a critical threshold is approaching

AB - Complex dynamical systems, ranging from ecosystems to financial markets and the climate, can have tipping points at which a sudden shift to a contrasting dynamical regime may occur. Although predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult, work in different scientific fields is now suggesting the existence of generic early-warning signals that may indicate for a wide class of systems if a critical threshold is approaching

KW - abrupt climate-change

KW - catastrophic regime shifts

KW - self-organized patchiness

KW - critical slowing-down

KW - thermohaline circulation

KW - epileptic seizures

KW - time-series

KW - ecosystems

KW - models

KW - thresholds

U2 - 10.1038/nature08227

DO - 10.1038/nature08227

M3 - Article

SN - 0028-0836

VL - 461

SP - 53

EP - 59

JO - Nature

JF - Nature

ER -

Early-warning signals for critical transitions

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Fingerprint

Cite this