Early-warning signals for critical transitions

M. Scheffer, J. Bascompte, W.A. Brock, V. Brovkin, S.R. Carpenter, V. Dakos, H. Held, E.H. van Nes, M. Rietkerk, G. Sugihara

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

1852 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Complex dynamical systems, ranging from ecosystems to financial markets and the climate, can have tipping points at which a sudden shift to a contrasting dynamical regime may occur. Although predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult, work in different scientific fields is now suggesting the existence of generic early-warning signals that may indicate for a wide class of systems if a critical threshold is approaching
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)53-59
JournalNature
Volume461
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2009

Keywords

  • abrupt climate-change
  • catastrophic regime shifts
  • self-organized patchiness
  • critical slowing-down
  • thermohaline circulation
  • epileptic seizures
  • time-series
  • ecosystems
  • models
  • thresholds

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Early-warning signals for critical transitions'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

  • Cite this

    Scheffer, M., Bascompte, J., Brock, W. A., Brovkin, V., Carpenter, S. R., Dakos, V., ... Sugihara, G. (2009). Early-warning signals for critical transitions. Nature, 461, 53-59. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08227