Dynamics of a scrapie outbreak in a flock of Romanov sheep-estimation of transmission parameters

T.H.J. Hagenaars, C.A. Donelly, N.M. Ferguson, R.M. Anderson

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

    13 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Knowledge of epidemiological mechanisms and parameters underlying scrapie transmission in sheep flocks remains very limited at present. Here we introduce a method for fitting stochastic transmission models to outbreak data to estimate bounds on key transmission parameters. We apply this method to data describing an outbreak of scrapie in a closed flock of Romanov sheep. The main findings are that the relative infectiousness of infected animals in this outbreak becomes appreciable early into disease incubation and that the mean incubation period is less than 1·5 years. We also find that the data are consistent with a broad range of values for the basic reproduction number R0 and describe how the boundaries of this range depend on assumptions about the mean incubation period and the contribution to transmission of a long-lived environmental reservoir of infectivity.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)1015-1022
    JournalEpidemiology and Infection
    Volume131
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2003

    Fingerprint

    Scrapie
    Disease Outbreaks
    Sheep
    Basic Reproduction Number

    Keywords

    • population-dynamics
    • mathematical-model
    • great-britain
    • epidemiology
    • infection
    • disease
    • virus
    • uk

    Cite this

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    title = "Dynamics of a scrapie outbreak in a flock of Romanov sheep-estimation of transmission parameters",
    abstract = "Knowledge of epidemiological mechanisms and parameters underlying scrapie transmission in sheep flocks remains very limited at present. Here we introduce a method for fitting stochastic transmission models to outbreak data to estimate bounds on key transmission parameters. We apply this method to data describing an outbreak of scrapie in a closed flock of Romanov sheep. The main findings are that the relative infectiousness of infected animals in this outbreak becomes appreciable early into disease incubation and that the mean incubation period is less than 1·5 years. We also find that the data are consistent with a broad range of values for the basic reproduction number R0 and describe how the boundaries of this range depend on assumptions about the mean incubation period and the contribution to transmission of a long-lived environmental reservoir of infectivity.",
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    author = "T.H.J. Hagenaars and C.A. Donelly and N.M. Ferguson and R.M. Anderson",
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    Dynamics of a scrapie outbreak in a flock of Romanov sheep-estimation of transmission parameters. / Hagenaars, T.H.J.; Donelly, C.A.; Ferguson, N.M.; Anderson, R.M.

    In: Epidemiology and Infection, Vol. 131, 2003, p. 1015-1022.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

    TY - JOUR

    T1 - Dynamics of a scrapie outbreak in a flock of Romanov sheep-estimation of transmission parameters

    AU - Hagenaars, T.H.J.

    AU - Donelly, C.A.

    AU - Ferguson, N.M.

    AU - Anderson, R.M.

    PY - 2003

    Y1 - 2003

    N2 - Knowledge of epidemiological mechanisms and parameters underlying scrapie transmission in sheep flocks remains very limited at present. Here we introduce a method for fitting stochastic transmission models to outbreak data to estimate bounds on key transmission parameters. We apply this method to data describing an outbreak of scrapie in a closed flock of Romanov sheep. The main findings are that the relative infectiousness of infected animals in this outbreak becomes appreciable early into disease incubation and that the mean incubation period is less than 1·5 years. We also find that the data are consistent with a broad range of values for the basic reproduction number R0 and describe how the boundaries of this range depend on assumptions about the mean incubation period and the contribution to transmission of a long-lived environmental reservoir of infectivity.

    AB - Knowledge of epidemiological mechanisms and parameters underlying scrapie transmission in sheep flocks remains very limited at present. Here we introduce a method for fitting stochastic transmission models to outbreak data to estimate bounds on key transmission parameters. We apply this method to data describing an outbreak of scrapie in a closed flock of Romanov sheep. The main findings are that the relative infectiousness of infected animals in this outbreak becomes appreciable early into disease incubation and that the mean incubation period is less than 1·5 years. We also find that the data are consistent with a broad range of values for the basic reproduction number R0 and describe how the boundaries of this range depend on assumptions about the mean incubation period and the contribution to transmission of a long-lived environmental reservoir of infectivity.

    KW - population-dynamics

    KW - mathematical-model

    KW - great-britain

    KW - epidemiology

    KW - infection

    KW - disease

    KW - virus

    KW - uk

    U2 - 10.1017/S0950268803001055

    DO - 10.1017/S0950268803001055

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