Ornamentals are taxed at a reduced VAT rate in the Netherlands (9% instead of 21%) and twelve other EU countries. An increase of VAT on ornamentals would have a negative impact on turnover and employment in the chain. This calculation shows that the effects of a VAT increase in the Netherlands leads to more than 170 million euros in loss of turnover in the Dutch ornamentals chain valued at wholesaler prices (-1.6%). If in other EU countries VAT is increased as well, there will be an effect on Dutch exports and consequently also the primary sector. The extra loss of turnover at wholesaler prices is estimated at 620 million euro (-6%). The long-term effects on VAT income of the Dutch government are calculated to increase by 226 million euros and 229 million euros, depending on whether only the Netherlands increases the VAT or also the other EU countries that apply a reduced rate. In the short term the effect on public finances is less significant due to an increase in the costs of social security and a decrease in income tax.