Do large-scale models capture reported drought events?

M.H.J. van Huijgevoort, H.A.J. van Lanen, A.J. Teuling, R. Uijlenhoet

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingAbstract

Abstract

Large-scale hydrological models are used to determine drought on a global scale. However, it is important to know how well these large-scale models can reproduce major drought events in the past before projections can be made. This study presents a comparison between a multi-model ensemble and reported drought events in the literature to assess the performance of large-scale models. Major drought events in the selected period (1963–2000) were reproduced by the model ensemble median, although the duration and spatial extent differed substantially from reported events. The major drought events are caused by precipitation deficits linked to oscillations in climatic patterns, such as ENSO. This implies that major drought events were simulated if these were included in the forcing data. Spatial extent and duration of simulated drought events differed from extent and duration of reported ones due to a fast runoff response in some models.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of FRIEND-Water 2014: Hydrology in Changing World: Environment and Human Dimensions
PublisherIAHS
Pages66-71
Number of pages6
Publication statusPublished - 2014
Event7th FRIEND-Water 2014, Montpellier, France -
Duration: 7 Oct 201410 Oct 2014

Publication series

NameIAHS publication
Number363

Conference

Conference7th FRIEND-Water 2014, Montpellier, France
Period7/10/1410/10/14

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drought
El Nino-Southern Oscillation
oscillation
runoff

Cite this

van Huijgevoort, M. H. J., van Lanen, H. A. J., Teuling, A. J., & Uijlenhoet, R. (2014). Do large-scale models capture reported drought events? In Proceedings of FRIEND-Water 2014: Hydrology in Changing World: Environment and Human Dimensions (pp. 66-71). (IAHS publication; No. 363). IAHS.
van Huijgevoort, M.H.J. ; van Lanen, H.A.J. ; Teuling, A.J. ; Uijlenhoet, R. / Do large-scale models capture reported drought events?. Proceedings of FRIEND-Water 2014: Hydrology in Changing World: Environment and Human Dimensions. IAHS, 2014. pp. 66-71 (IAHS publication; 363).
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van Huijgevoort, MHJ, van Lanen, HAJ, Teuling, AJ & Uijlenhoet, R 2014, Do large-scale models capture reported drought events? in Proceedings of FRIEND-Water 2014: Hydrology in Changing World: Environment and Human Dimensions. IAHS publication, no. 363, IAHS, pp. 66-71, 7th FRIEND-Water 2014, Montpellier, France, 7/10/14.

Do large-scale models capture reported drought events? / van Huijgevoort, M.H.J.; van Lanen, H.A.J.; Teuling, A.J.; Uijlenhoet, R.

Proceedings of FRIEND-Water 2014: Hydrology in Changing World: Environment and Human Dimensions. IAHS, 2014. p. 66-71 (IAHS publication; No. 363).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingAbstract

TY - CHAP

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AU - Teuling, A.J.

AU - Uijlenhoet, R.

PY - 2014

Y1 - 2014

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AB - Large-scale hydrological models are used to determine drought on a global scale. However, it is important to know how well these large-scale models can reproduce major drought events in the past before projections can be made. This study presents a comparison between a multi-model ensemble and reported drought events in the literature to assess the performance of large-scale models. Major drought events in the selected period (1963–2000) were reproduced by the model ensemble median, although the duration and spatial extent differed substantially from reported events. The major drought events are caused by precipitation deficits linked to oscillations in climatic patterns, such as ENSO. This implies that major drought events were simulated if these were included in the forcing data. Spatial extent and duration of simulated drought events differed from extent and duration of reported ones due to a fast runoff response in some models.

M3 - Abstract

T3 - IAHS publication

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BT - Proceedings of FRIEND-Water 2014: Hydrology in Changing World: Environment and Human Dimensions

PB - IAHS

ER -

van Huijgevoort MHJ, van Lanen HAJ, Teuling AJ, Uijlenhoet R. Do large-scale models capture reported drought events? In Proceedings of FRIEND-Water 2014: Hydrology in Changing World: Environment and Human Dimensions. IAHS. 2014. p. 66-71. (IAHS publication; 363).