Do intensive care data on respiratory infections reflect influenza epidemics?

A. Koetsier, L. van Asten, F. Dijkstra, W. van der Hoek, B.E. Snijders, C.C. van den Wijngaard, H.C. Boshuizen, G.A. Donker, D.W. de Lange, N.F. de Keizer

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Objectives Severe influenza can lead to Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission. We explored whether ICU data reflect influenza like illness (ILI) activity in the general population, and whether ICU respiratory infections can predict influenza epidemics. Methods We calculated the time lag and correlation between ILI incidence (from ILI sentinel surveillance, based on general practitioners (GP) consultations) and percentages of ICU admissions with a respiratory infection (from the Dutch National Intensive Care Registry) over the years 2003–2011. In addition, ICU data of the first three years was used to build three regression models to predict the start and end of influenza epidemics in the years thereafter, one to three weeks ahead. The predicted start and end of influenza epidemics were compared with observed start and end of such epidemics according to the incidence of ILI. Results Peaks in respiratory ICU admissions lasted longer than peaks in ILI incidence rates. Increases in ICU admissions occurred on average two days earlier compared to ILI. Predicting influenza epidemics one, two, or three weeks ahead yielded positive predictive values ranging from 0.52 to 0.78, and sensitivities from 0.34 to 0.51. Conclusions ICU data was associated with ILI activity, with increases in ICU data often occurring earlier and for a longer time period. However, in the Netherlands, predicting influenza epidemics in the general population using ICU data was imprecise, with low positive predictive values and sensitivities.
Original languageEnglish
Article numbere83854
JournalPLoS ONE
Volume8
Issue number12
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2013

Fingerprint

Intensive care units
Critical Care
Respiratory Tract Infections
influenza
Human Influenza
Intensive Care Units
infection
incidence
Incidence
Respiratory Care Units
Sentinel Surveillance
general practitioners
Netherlands
General Practitioners
Population
Registries

Keywords

  • regression
  • severity
  • models

Cite this

Koetsier, A., van Asten, L., Dijkstra, F., van der Hoek, W., Snijders, B. E., van den Wijngaard, C. C., ... de Keizer, N. F. (2013). Do intensive care data on respiratory infections reflect influenza epidemics? PLoS ONE, 8(12), [e83854]. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0083854
Koetsier, A. ; van Asten, L. ; Dijkstra, F. ; van der Hoek, W. ; Snijders, B.E. ; van den Wijngaard, C.C. ; Boshuizen, H.C. ; Donker, G.A. ; de Lange, D.W. ; de Keizer, N.F. / Do intensive care data on respiratory infections reflect influenza epidemics?. In: PLoS ONE. 2013 ; Vol. 8, No. 12.
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title = "Do intensive care data on respiratory infections reflect influenza epidemics?",
abstract = "Objectives Severe influenza can lead to Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission. We explored whether ICU data reflect influenza like illness (ILI) activity in the general population, and whether ICU respiratory infections can predict influenza epidemics. Methods We calculated the time lag and correlation between ILI incidence (from ILI sentinel surveillance, based on general practitioners (GP) consultations) and percentages of ICU admissions with a respiratory infection (from the Dutch National Intensive Care Registry) over the years 2003–2011. In addition, ICU data of the first three years was used to build three regression models to predict the start and end of influenza epidemics in the years thereafter, one to three weeks ahead. The predicted start and end of influenza epidemics were compared with observed start and end of such epidemics according to the incidence of ILI. Results Peaks in respiratory ICU admissions lasted longer than peaks in ILI incidence rates. Increases in ICU admissions occurred on average two days earlier compared to ILI. Predicting influenza epidemics one, two, or three weeks ahead yielded positive predictive values ranging from 0.52 to 0.78, and sensitivities from 0.34 to 0.51. Conclusions ICU data was associated with ILI activity, with increases in ICU data often occurring earlier and for a longer time period. However, in the Netherlands, predicting influenza epidemics in the general population using ICU data was imprecise, with low positive predictive values and sensitivities.",
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author = "A. Koetsier and {van Asten}, L. and F. Dijkstra and {van der Hoek}, W. and B.E. Snijders and {van den Wijngaard}, C.C. and H.C. Boshuizen and G.A. Donker and {de Lange}, D.W. and {de Keizer}, N.F.",
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Koetsier, A, van Asten, L, Dijkstra, F, van der Hoek, W, Snijders, BE, van den Wijngaard, CC, Boshuizen, HC, Donker, GA, de Lange, DW & de Keizer, NF 2013, 'Do intensive care data on respiratory infections reflect influenza epidemics?', PLoS ONE, vol. 8, no. 12, e83854. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0083854

Do intensive care data on respiratory infections reflect influenza epidemics? / Koetsier, A.; van Asten, L.; Dijkstra, F.; van der Hoek, W.; Snijders, B.E.; van den Wijngaard, C.C.; Boshuizen, H.C.; Donker, G.A.; de Lange, D.W.; de Keizer, N.F.

In: PLoS ONE, Vol. 8, No. 12, e83854, 2013.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Do intensive care data on respiratory infections reflect influenza epidemics?

AU - Koetsier, A.

AU - van Asten, L.

AU - Dijkstra, F.

AU - van der Hoek, W.

AU - Snijders, B.E.

AU - van den Wijngaard, C.C.

AU - Boshuizen, H.C.

AU - Donker, G.A.

AU - de Lange, D.W.

AU - de Keizer, N.F.

PY - 2013

Y1 - 2013

N2 - Objectives Severe influenza can lead to Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission. We explored whether ICU data reflect influenza like illness (ILI) activity in the general population, and whether ICU respiratory infections can predict influenza epidemics. Methods We calculated the time lag and correlation between ILI incidence (from ILI sentinel surveillance, based on general practitioners (GP) consultations) and percentages of ICU admissions with a respiratory infection (from the Dutch National Intensive Care Registry) over the years 2003–2011. In addition, ICU data of the first three years was used to build three regression models to predict the start and end of influenza epidemics in the years thereafter, one to three weeks ahead. The predicted start and end of influenza epidemics were compared with observed start and end of such epidemics according to the incidence of ILI. Results Peaks in respiratory ICU admissions lasted longer than peaks in ILI incidence rates. Increases in ICU admissions occurred on average two days earlier compared to ILI. Predicting influenza epidemics one, two, or three weeks ahead yielded positive predictive values ranging from 0.52 to 0.78, and sensitivities from 0.34 to 0.51. Conclusions ICU data was associated with ILI activity, with increases in ICU data often occurring earlier and for a longer time period. However, in the Netherlands, predicting influenza epidemics in the general population using ICU data was imprecise, with low positive predictive values and sensitivities.

AB - Objectives Severe influenza can lead to Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission. We explored whether ICU data reflect influenza like illness (ILI) activity in the general population, and whether ICU respiratory infections can predict influenza epidemics. Methods We calculated the time lag and correlation between ILI incidence (from ILI sentinel surveillance, based on general practitioners (GP) consultations) and percentages of ICU admissions with a respiratory infection (from the Dutch National Intensive Care Registry) over the years 2003–2011. In addition, ICU data of the first three years was used to build three regression models to predict the start and end of influenza epidemics in the years thereafter, one to three weeks ahead. The predicted start and end of influenza epidemics were compared with observed start and end of such epidemics according to the incidence of ILI. Results Peaks in respiratory ICU admissions lasted longer than peaks in ILI incidence rates. Increases in ICU admissions occurred on average two days earlier compared to ILI. Predicting influenza epidemics one, two, or three weeks ahead yielded positive predictive values ranging from 0.52 to 0.78, and sensitivities from 0.34 to 0.51. Conclusions ICU data was associated with ILI activity, with increases in ICU data often occurring earlier and for a longer time period. However, in the Netherlands, predicting influenza epidemics in the general population using ICU data was imprecise, with low positive predictive values and sensitivities.

KW - regression

KW - severity

KW - models

U2 - 10.1371/journal.pone.0083854

DO - 10.1371/journal.pone.0083854

M3 - Article

VL - 8

JO - PLoS ONE

JF - PLoS ONE

SN - 1932-6203

IS - 12

M1 - e83854

ER -

Koetsier A, van Asten L, Dijkstra F, van der Hoek W, Snijders BE, van den Wijngaard CC et al. Do intensive care data on respiratory infections reflect influenza epidemics? PLoS ONE. 2013;8(12). e83854. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0083854