Development of a dynamic population model as a decision support system for Codling Moth (Cydia pomonella L.) management

In 2004 RIMpro-Cydia was developed as a dynamic population model that simulates the within-year biology of a local codling moth population. The model is meant to be used by growers and advisors to optimize the control of codling moth populations in organic and integrated managed orchards. The model is based on literature data and unpublished research data. Fractional boxcar trains are used to mimic the dispersion in the developmental processes. The model is run in real time on the data input of local weather stations, starting on 1 January. The output of the model was compared with the results of field observations in three years in an untreated orchard. In the years 2005 to 2007 the progress in egg deposition as predicted by the model was in general agreement with the field data. The start of the egg deposition period was predicted well. The end of the egg deposition period was predicted when in the field about 10% of the eggs was still to be laid. There was no consistency in the relation between cumulated pheromone trap catches and the cumulative egg deposition as calculated from the field data.