Delphi Foresight Analysis

D.G. Coles, L.J. Frewer

Research output: Book/ReportReportAcademic


Summary The INNOVA-P2 project seeks to develop a plan for amending the current Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) regime for rewarding pharmaceutical innovations. Amendments to the current system are required if reasonably priced health care is to be delivered to patients in all areas of the world.. The INNOVA-P2 project focuses on a potential two-tiered patent system, which would create a new patent (Patent-2) that is complementary to existing monopoly patents, leaving innovators free to choose the traditional approach to recouping the costs of medical innovation, or adopt the Patent-2 approach. Reward would be in proportion to the positive impact on health globally. From this, the Health Impact Fund (HIF) scheme, has been designed to facilitate innovation in the pharmaceutical sector regarding the treatment of neglected diseases or diseases of poverty. A critical issue regarding the effectiveness of the HIF is the acceptance by key stakeholders and end-users, including industry and national governments, and international organisations. A two stage, international, expert stakeholder Delphi survey (N=25) was conducted to • Identify potential barriers to implementation of the Patent-2 scheme, and how these can be overcome. • Requirements for acceptance, harmonisation and implementation of the Patent-2 scheme globally and by individual stakeholders. • The conditions and approach required to develop an international consensus policy. The results of the Delphi survey suggest that there is considerable stakeholder and end-user support for an HIF scheme in principle, although some practical difficulties will require resolution prior to practical implementation of an HIF. These include the focus of the scheme (in terms of diseases included, size of the scheme, appropriate and effective metricisation of health impacts, and whether the HIF should include other health interventions over and above pharmaceutical developments. Potential diversion of funding from other initiatives was also perceived as problematic, and would need to be considered through effective international harmonisation of funding practices.
Original languageEnglish
Place of PublicationWageningen
Number of pages51
Publication statusPublished - 2010


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