Cropland acidification increases risk of yield losses and food insecurity in China

Qichao Zhu, Xuejun Liu, Tianxiang Hao, Mufan Zeng, Jianbo Shen, Fusuo Zhang*, Wim de Vries

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

Distinct cropland acidification has been reported in China due to nitrogen (N) fertilizer overuse. However, the impacts on food production and thereby on food security are largely unknown. Yield losses in the period 1980–2050 were therefore assessed by simulating soil pH changes combined with derived pH-yield relationships for wheat, maize and rice. If the N fertilizer input continues to increase at 1% annually, the predicted average soil pH decline is about one unit and relative yield losses are expected to increase from approximately 4%–24% during 2010–2050. If the N fertilizer increase stops in 2020 (N2020), the expected losses are approximately 16% in 2050, which is comparable to a scenario of 100% crop residue return (100%RR). However, if 30% of the N fertilizer is replaced by manure N (30%MR), the losses reduce to near 5% in 2050. Soil acidification was predicted to reverse and expected losses are only 2.5% in 2050 in a combined scenario of N2020, 100%RR and 30%MR. Our results illustrate the potential food insecurity induced by cropland acidification and address the necessity of mitigation.

Original languageEnglish
Article number113145
JournalEnvironmental Pollution
Volume256
Early online date12 Sep 2019
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jan 2020

Fingerprint

Food Supply
Acidification
Fertilizers
China
Soil
Soils
Crops
Manure
Manures
Triticum
Zea mays
Nitrogen
Food

Keywords

  • Acidification
  • Field management
  • Food security
  • Model
  • Yield loss

Cite this

Zhu, Qichao ; Liu, Xuejun ; Hao, Tianxiang ; Zeng, Mufan ; Shen, Jianbo ; Zhang, Fusuo ; de Vries, Wim. / Cropland acidification increases risk of yield losses and food insecurity in China. In: Environmental Pollution. 2020 ; Vol. 256.
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abstract = "Distinct cropland acidification has been reported in China due to nitrogen (N) fertilizer overuse. However, the impacts on food production and thereby on food security are largely unknown. Yield losses in the period 1980–2050 were therefore assessed by simulating soil pH changes combined with derived pH-yield relationships for wheat, maize and rice. If the N fertilizer input continues to increase at 1{\%} annually, the predicted average soil pH decline is about one unit and relative yield losses are expected to increase from approximately 4{\%}–24{\%} during 2010–2050. If the N fertilizer increase stops in 2020 (N2020), the expected losses are approximately 16{\%} in 2050, which is comparable to a scenario of 100{\%} crop residue return (100{\%}RR). However, if 30{\%} of the N fertilizer is replaced by manure N (30{\%}MR), the losses reduce to near 5{\%} in 2050. Soil acidification was predicted to reverse and expected losses are only 2.5{\%} in 2050 in a combined scenario of N2020, 100{\%}RR and 30{\%}MR. Our results illustrate the potential food insecurity induced by cropland acidification and address the necessity of mitigation.",
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Cropland acidification increases risk of yield losses and food insecurity in China. / Zhu, Qichao; Liu, Xuejun; Hao, Tianxiang; Zeng, Mufan; Shen, Jianbo; Zhang, Fusuo; de Vries, Wim.

In: Environmental Pollution, Vol. 256, 113145, 01.2020.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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AU - Zhu, Qichao

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AU - Zhang, Fusuo

AU - de Vries, Wim

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