Controlling highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks

An epidemiological and economic model analysis

J.A. Backer*, H.J.W. van Roermund, E.A.J. Fischer, M.A.P.M. van Asseldonk, R.H.M. Bergevoet

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

8 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) can cause large losses for the poultry sector and for animal disease controlling authorities, as well as risks for animal and human welfare. In the current simulation approach epidemiological and economic models are combined to compare different strategies to control highly pathogenic avian influenza in Dutch poultry flocks. Evaluated control strategies are the minimum EU strategy (i.e., culling of infected flocks, transport regulations, tracing and screening of contact flocks, establishment of protection and surveillance zones), and additional control strategies comprising pre-emptive culling of all susceptible poultry flocks in an area around infected flocks (1. km, 3. km and 10. km) and emergency vaccination of all flocks except broilers around infected flocks (3. km).Simulation results indicate that the EU strategy is not sufficient to eradicate an epidemic in high density poultry areas. From an epidemiological point of view, this strategy is the least effective, while pre-emptive culling in 10. km radius is the most effective of the studied strategies. But these two strategies incur the highest costs due to long duration (EU strategy) and large-scale culling (pre-emptive culling in 10. km radius). Other analysed pre-emptive culling strategies (i.e., in 1. km and 3. km radius) are more effective than the analysed emergency vaccination strategy (in 3. km radius) in terms of duration and size of the epidemics, despite the assumed optimistic vaccination capacity of 20 farms per day. However, the total costs of these strategies differ only marginally. Extending the capacity for culling substantially reduces the duration, size and costs of the epidemic.This study demonstrates the strength of combining epidemiological and economic model analysis to gain insight in a range of consequences and thus to serve as a decision support tool in the control of HPAI epidemics.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)142-150
JournalPreventive Veterinary Medicine
Volume121
Issue number1-2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2015

Fingerprint

Economic Models
culling (animals)
Influenza in Birds
econometric models
avian influenza
Poultry
Disease Outbreaks
flocks
Vaccination
Costs and Cost Analysis
poultry
Emergencies
Contact Tracing
vaccination
Animal Welfare
Animal Diseases
duration
animal diseases
broiler chickens
screening

Keywords

  • Control strategy
  • Economic assessment
  • Epidemiological model
  • Highly pathogenic avian influenza
  • HPAI
  • Pre-emptive culling
  • Vaccination

Cite this

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title = "Controlling highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks: An epidemiological and economic model analysis",
abstract = "Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) can cause large losses for the poultry sector and for animal disease controlling authorities, as well as risks for animal and human welfare. In the current simulation approach epidemiological and economic models are combined to compare different strategies to control highly pathogenic avian influenza in Dutch poultry flocks. Evaluated control strategies are the minimum EU strategy (i.e., culling of infected flocks, transport regulations, tracing and screening of contact flocks, establishment of protection and surveillance zones), and additional control strategies comprising pre-emptive culling of all susceptible poultry flocks in an area around infected flocks (1. km, 3. km and 10. km) and emergency vaccination of all flocks except broilers around infected flocks (3. km).Simulation results indicate that the EU strategy is not sufficient to eradicate an epidemic in high density poultry areas. From an epidemiological point of view, this strategy is the least effective, while pre-emptive culling in 10. km radius is the most effective of the studied strategies. But these two strategies incur the highest costs due to long duration (EU strategy) and large-scale culling (pre-emptive culling in 10. km radius). Other analysed pre-emptive culling strategies (i.e., in 1. km and 3. km radius) are more effective than the analysed emergency vaccination strategy (in 3. km radius) in terms of duration and size of the epidemics, despite the assumed optimistic vaccination capacity of 20 farms per day. However, the total costs of these strategies differ only marginally. Extending the capacity for culling substantially reduces the duration, size and costs of the epidemic.This study demonstrates the strength of combining epidemiological and economic model analysis to gain insight in a range of consequences and thus to serve as a decision support tool in the control of HPAI epidemics.",
keywords = "Control strategy, Economic assessment, Epidemiological model, Highly pathogenic avian influenza, HPAI, Pre-emptive culling, Vaccination",
author = "J.A. Backer and {van Roermund}, H.J.W. and E.A.J. Fischer and {van Asseldonk}, M.A.P.M. and R.H.M. Bergevoet",
year = "2015",
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language = "English",
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Controlling highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks : An epidemiological and economic model analysis. / Backer, J.A.; van Roermund, H.J.W.; Fischer, E.A.J.; van Asseldonk, M.A.P.M.; Bergevoet, R.H.M.

In: Preventive Veterinary Medicine, Vol. 121, No. 1-2, 2015, p. 142-150.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Controlling highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks

T2 - An epidemiological and economic model analysis

AU - Backer, J.A.

AU - van Roermund, H.J.W.

AU - Fischer, E.A.J.

AU - van Asseldonk, M.A.P.M.

AU - Bergevoet, R.H.M.

PY - 2015

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N2 - Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) can cause large losses for the poultry sector and for animal disease controlling authorities, as well as risks for animal and human welfare. In the current simulation approach epidemiological and economic models are combined to compare different strategies to control highly pathogenic avian influenza in Dutch poultry flocks. Evaluated control strategies are the minimum EU strategy (i.e., culling of infected flocks, transport regulations, tracing and screening of contact flocks, establishment of protection and surveillance zones), and additional control strategies comprising pre-emptive culling of all susceptible poultry flocks in an area around infected flocks (1. km, 3. km and 10. km) and emergency vaccination of all flocks except broilers around infected flocks (3. km).Simulation results indicate that the EU strategy is not sufficient to eradicate an epidemic in high density poultry areas. From an epidemiological point of view, this strategy is the least effective, while pre-emptive culling in 10. km radius is the most effective of the studied strategies. But these two strategies incur the highest costs due to long duration (EU strategy) and large-scale culling (pre-emptive culling in 10. km radius). Other analysed pre-emptive culling strategies (i.e., in 1. km and 3. km radius) are more effective than the analysed emergency vaccination strategy (in 3. km radius) in terms of duration and size of the epidemics, despite the assumed optimistic vaccination capacity of 20 farms per day. However, the total costs of these strategies differ only marginally. Extending the capacity for culling substantially reduces the duration, size and costs of the epidemic.This study demonstrates the strength of combining epidemiological and economic model analysis to gain insight in a range of consequences and thus to serve as a decision support tool in the control of HPAI epidemics.

AB - Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) can cause large losses for the poultry sector and for animal disease controlling authorities, as well as risks for animal and human welfare. In the current simulation approach epidemiological and economic models are combined to compare different strategies to control highly pathogenic avian influenza in Dutch poultry flocks. Evaluated control strategies are the minimum EU strategy (i.e., culling of infected flocks, transport regulations, tracing and screening of contact flocks, establishment of protection and surveillance zones), and additional control strategies comprising pre-emptive culling of all susceptible poultry flocks in an area around infected flocks (1. km, 3. km and 10. km) and emergency vaccination of all flocks except broilers around infected flocks (3. km).Simulation results indicate that the EU strategy is not sufficient to eradicate an epidemic in high density poultry areas. From an epidemiological point of view, this strategy is the least effective, while pre-emptive culling in 10. km radius is the most effective of the studied strategies. But these two strategies incur the highest costs due to long duration (EU strategy) and large-scale culling (pre-emptive culling in 10. km radius). Other analysed pre-emptive culling strategies (i.e., in 1. km and 3. km radius) are more effective than the analysed emergency vaccination strategy (in 3. km radius) in terms of duration and size of the epidemics, despite the assumed optimistic vaccination capacity of 20 farms per day. However, the total costs of these strategies differ only marginally. Extending the capacity for culling substantially reduces the duration, size and costs of the epidemic.This study demonstrates the strength of combining epidemiological and economic model analysis to gain insight in a range of consequences and thus to serve as a decision support tool in the control of HPAI epidemics.

KW - Control strategy

KW - Economic assessment

KW - Epidemiological model

KW - Highly pathogenic avian influenza

KW - HPAI

KW - Pre-emptive culling

KW - Vaccination

U2 - 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2015.06.006

DO - 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2015.06.006

M3 - Article

VL - 121

SP - 142

EP - 150

JO - Preventive Veterinary Medicine

JF - Preventive Veterinary Medicine

SN - 0167-5877

IS - 1-2

ER -