Comparison of 3 mathematical models to estimate lactation performance in dairy cows

Milk yield dynamics and production performance reflect how dairy cows cope with their environment. To optimize farm management, time series of individual cow milk yield have been studied in the context of precision livestock farming, and many mathematical models have been proposed to translate raw data into useful information for the stakeholders of the dairy chain. To gain better insights on the topic, this study aimed at comparing 3 recent methods that allow one to estimate individual cow potential lactation performance, using daily data recorded by the automatic milking systems of 14 dairy farms (7 Holstein, 7 Italian Simmental) from Belgium, the Netherlands, and Italy. An iterative Wood model (IW), a perturbed lactation model (PLM), and a quantile regression (QR) were compared in terms of estimated total unperturbed (i.e., expected) milk production and estimated total milk loss (relative to unperturbed yield). The IW and PLM can also be used to identify perturbations of the lactation curve and were thus compared in this regard. The outcome of this study may help a given end-user in choosing the most appropriate method according to their specific requirements. If there is a specific interest in the post–peak lactation phase, IW can be the best option. If one wants to accurately describe the perturbations of the lactation curve, PLM can be the most suitable method. If there is need for a fast and easy approach on a very large dataset, QR can be the choice. Finally, as an example of application, PLM was used to analyze the effect of cow parity, calving season, and breed on their estimated lactation performance.