Combining participatory approaches and an agent-based model for better planning shrimp aquaculture

In the Mekong Delta coastal zone, decision makers must weigh trade-offs between sustaining the shrimp sector and thus ensuring economic development, while also promoting sustainable, environmentally friendly practices and planning for climate change adaptation. This study investigates future scenarios for development of shrimp aquaculture using a spatially explicit, agent-based model (ABM) simulating farmers' production system choices. A role playing game (RPG) with farmers was used to calibrate and validate the model. Four scenarios, representing different visions of aquaculture in the next 15 years, were elaborated with decision makers before discussing the different outputs of the model. Iterative consultation with farmers helped to fine-tune the model and identify key parameters and drivers in farmers' decision-making. The recursive process allowed us to construct a model that validly represents reality. Participants stated that use of the RPG improved their insight for planning. Results of the scenarios indicate that (i) intensification of production is unsustainable, (ii) market-based incentives are too limited to stimulate development of an integrated mangrove–shrimp production system and (iii) climate change will cause rapid decline of production in the absence of adaptation measures. RPG appeared to be a valuable method for formalizing local farmers' knowledge and integrating it into the planning approaches used by decision makers. The ABM, thus, can also be considered a medium or communication tool facilitating knowledge-sharing between farmers and decision makers.