Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models

S. Hagemann, Cui Chen, D.B. Clark, S. Folwell, S. Gosling, I. Haddeland, N. Hanasaki, J. Heinke, F. Ludwig

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

170 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global climate (three) and hydrological 5 models (eight) were used to systematically assess the hydrological response to climate change and project the future state of global water resources. The results show a large spread in projected changes in water resources within the climate–hydrology modelling chain for some regions. They clearly demonstrate that climate models are not the only source of uncertainty for hydrological change. But there are also areas 10 showing a robust change signal, such as at high latitudes and in some mid-latitude regions, where the models agree on the sign of projected hydrological changes, indicative of higher confidence. In many catchments an increase of available water resources is expected but there are some severe decreases in central and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Mississippi river basin, Southern Africa, Southern China and south 15 eastern Australia.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)129-144
JournalEarth System dynamics
Volume4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2013

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

  • Projects

    ESS-CC

    Project: Other

    Cite this

    Hagemann, S., Chen, C., Clark, D. B., Folwell, S., Gosling, S., Haddeland, I., Hanasaki, N., Heinke, J., & Ludwig, F. (2013). Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models. Earth System dynamics, 4, 129-144. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-129-2013