Climate change effects on aflatoxins in the dairy supply chain

H.J. van der Fels-Klerx; L.C. Vermeulen; A.K. Gavai; C. Liu

doi:10.5281/zenodo.3642305

Climate change effects on aflatoxins in the dairy supply chain

H.J. van der Fels-Klerx, L.C. Vermeulen, A.K. Gavai, C. Liu

Research output: Contribution to conference › Poster › Academic

Abstract

Climate change is estimated to result into increased temperatures and rainfall in general, with more drought periods and heavy showers, in Europe. These effects are expected to affect the presence of aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) in maize grown in Europe, and might impact aflatoxin M1 (AFM1) in milk as well.
Three different climate models, one AFB1 forecasting model, and five transfer models, as published in literature, were used. Climate models considered were DMI, ETHZ, METO with 30 simulated years for 2030, and data from 2005-2017 as the baseline. Monte Carlo simulation with 10000 iterations was used to account for uncertainty and variation in input model parameters.

Original language	English
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3642305
Publication status	Published - 5 Feb 2020
Event	Wageningen Data Science Week - Wageningen, Netherlands Duration: 3 Feb 2020 → 7 Feb 2020

Conference/symposium

Conference/symposium	Wageningen Data Science Week
Country/Territory	Netherlands
City	Wageningen
Period	3/02/20 → 7/02/20

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.5281/zenodo.3642305Licence: CC BY

1 Article

Climate change impacts on aflatoxin B₁ in maize and aflatoxin M₁ in milk: A case study of maize grown in Eastern Europe and imported to the Netherlands
Van der Fels-Klerx, H. J., Vermeulen, L. C., Gavai, A. K. & Liu, C., 1 Jan 2019, In: PLoS ONE. 14, 6, e0218956.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Open Access
70 Citations (Scopus)

Cite this

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title = "Climate change effects on aflatoxins in the dairy supply chain",

abstract = "Climate change is estimated to result into increased temperatures and rainfall in general, with more drought periods and heavy showers, in Europe. These effects are expected to affect the presence of aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) in maize grown in Europe, and might impact aflatoxin M1 (AFM1) in milk as well.Three different climate models, one AFB1 forecasting model, and five transfer models, as published in literature, were used. Climate models considered were DMI, ETHZ, METO with 30 simulated years for 2030, and data from 2005-2017 as the baseline. Monte Carlo simulation with 10000 iterations was used to account for uncertainty and variation in input model parameters.",

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AB - Climate change is estimated to result into increased temperatures and rainfall in general, with more drought periods and heavy showers, in Europe. These effects are expected to affect the presence of aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) in maize grown in Europe, and might impact aflatoxin M1 (AFM1) in milk as well.Three different climate models, one AFB1 forecasting model, and five transfer models, as published in literature, were used. Climate models considered were DMI, ETHZ, METO with 30 simulated years for 2030, and data from 2005-2017 as the baseline. Monte Carlo simulation with 10000 iterations was used to account for uncertainty and variation in input model parameters.

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Climate change effects on aflatoxins in the dairy supply chain

Abstract

Conference/symposium

UN SDGs

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Research output

Climate change impacts on aflatoxin B1 in maize and aflatoxin M1 in milk: A case study of maize grown in Eastern Europe and imported to the Netherlands

Cite this

Climate change impacts on aflatoxin B₁ in maize and aflatoxin M₁ in milk: A case study of maize grown in Eastern Europe and imported to the Netherlands