Climate change adaptation and the role of fuel subsidies: An empirical bio-economic modeling study for an artisanal open-access fishery

Kira Lancker*, Anna Lena Deppenmeier, Teferi Demissie, Jörn O. Schmidt

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

Climate change can severely impact artisanal fisheries and affect the role they play in food security. We study climate change effects on the triple bottom line of ecological productivity, fishers’ incomes, and fish consumption for an artisanal open-access fishery. We develop and apply an empirical, stochastic bio-economic model for the Senegalese artisanal purse seine fishery on small pelagic fish and compare the simulated fishery’s development using four climate projections and two policy scenarios. We find that economic processes of adaptation may amplify the effects of climate variations. The regions’ catch potential increases with climate change, induced by stock distribution changes. However, this outcome escalates over-fishing, whose effects outpace the incipiently favorable climate change effects under three of the four climate projections. Without policy action, the fishery is estimated to collapse in 2030–2035 on average over 1000 runs. We propose an easily implementable and overall welfare-increasing intervention: reduction of fuel subsidies. If fuel subsidies were abolished, ecological sustainability as well as the fishery’s welfare contribution would increase regardless of the climate projection.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere0220433
JournalPLoS ONE
Volume14
Issue number8
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 21 Aug 2019

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bioeconomics
Fisheries
Climate Change
subsidies
Climate
Climate change
Economics
fisheries
climate change
climate
Fish
Fishes
artisanal fishing
Economic Models
bioeconomic models
fish consumption
Food Supply
environmental sustainability
pelagic fish
overfishing

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Lancker, Kira ; Deppenmeier, Anna Lena ; Demissie, Teferi ; Schmidt, Jörn O. / Climate change adaptation and the role of fuel subsidies: An empirical bio-economic modeling study for an artisanal open-access fishery. In: PLoS ONE. 2019 ; Vol. 14, No. 8.
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abstract = "Climate change can severely impact artisanal fisheries and affect the role they play in food security. We study climate change effects on the triple bottom line of ecological productivity, fishers’ incomes, and fish consumption for an artisanal open-access fishery. We develop and apply an empirical, stochastic bio-economic model for the Senegalese artisanal purse seine fishery on small pelagic fish and compare the simulated fishery’s development using four climate projections and two policy scenarios. We find that economic processes of adaptation may amplify the effects of climate variations. The regions’ catch potential increases with climate change, induced by stock distribution changes. However, this outcome escalates over-fishing, whose effects outpace the incipiently favorable climate change effects under three of the four climate projections. Without policy action, the fishery is estimated to collapse in 2030–2035 on average over 1000 runs. We propose an easily implementable and overall welfare-increasing intervention: reduction of fuel subsidies. If fuel subsidies were abolished, ecological sustainability as well as the fishery’s welfare contribution would increase regardless of the climate projection.",
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Climate change adaptation and the role of fuel subsidies: An empirical bio-economic modeling study for an artisanal open-access fishery. / Lancker, Kira; Deppenmeier, Anna Lena; Demissie, Teferi; Schmidt, Jörn O.

In: PLoS ONE, Vol. 14, No. 8, e0220433, 21.08.2019.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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