Cereal yield gaps across Europe

René Schils, Jørgen E. Olesen, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Bert Rijk, Michael Oberforster, Valery Kalyada, Maksim Khitrykau, Anne Gobin, Hristofor Kirchev, Vanya Manolova, Ivan Manolov, Mirek Trnka, Petr Hlavinka, Taru Paluoso, Pirjo Peltonen-Sainio, Lauri Jauhiainen, Josiane Lorgeou, Hélène Marrou, Nikos Danalatos, Sotirios Archontoulis & 30 others Nándor Fodor, John Spink, Pier Paolo Roggero, Simona Bassu, Antonio Pulina, Till Seehusen, Anne Kjersti Uhlen, Katarzyna Żyłowska, Anna Nieróbca, Jerzy Kozyra, João Vasco Silva, Benvindo Martins Maçãs, José Coutinho, Viorel Ion, Jozef Takáč, M.I. Mínguez, Henrik Eckersten, Lilia Levy, Juan Manuel Herrera, Jürg Hiltbrunner, Oleksii Kryvobok, Oleksandr Kryvoshein, Hendrik Boogaard, Hugo de Groot, Jan Peter Lesschen, Lenny van Bussel, Joost Wolf, Mink Zijlstra, Marloes P. van Loon, Martin K. van Ittersum

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

7 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Europe accounts for around 20% of the global cereal production and is a net exporter of ca. 15% of that production. Increasing global demand for cereals justifies questions as to where and by how much Europe's production can be increased to meet future global market demands, and how much additional nitrogen (N) crops would require. The latter is important as environmental concern and legislation are equally important as production aims in Europe. Here, we used a country-by-country, bottom-up approach to establish statistical estimates of actual grain yield, and compare these to modelled estimates of potential yields for either irrigated or rainfed conditions. In this way, we identified the yield gaps and the opportunities for increased cereal production for wheat, barley and maize, which represent 90% of the cereals grown in Europe. The combined mean annual yield gap of wheat, barley, maize was 239 Mt, or 42% of the yield potential. The national yield gaps ranged between 10 and 70%, with small gaps in many north-western European countries, and large gaps in eastern and south-western Europe. Yield gaps for rainfed and irrigated maize were consistently lower than those of wheat and barley. If the yield gaps of maize, wheat and barley would be reduced from 42% to 20% of potential yields, this would increase annual cereal production by 128 Mt (39%). Potential for higher cereal production exists predominantly in Eastern Europe, and half of Europe's potential increase is located in Ukraine, Romania and Poland. Unlocking the identified potential for production growth requires a substantial increase of the crop N uptake of 4.8 Mt. Across Europe, the average N uptake gaps, to achieve 80% of the yield potential, were 87, 77 and 43 kg N ha−1 for wheat, barley and maize, respectively. Emphasis on increasing the N use efficiency is necessary to minimize the need for additional N inputs. Whether yield gap reduction is desirable and feasible is a matter of balancing Europe's role in global food security, farm economic objectives and environmental targets.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)109-120
JournalEuropean Journal of Agronomy
Volume101
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2018

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cereal
barley
wheat
maize
corn
Western European region
Europe
bottom-up approach
Ukraine
Eastern European region
crop
Romania
crops
food security
laws and regulations
Poland
grain yield
legislation
markets
farm

Keywords

  • Barley
  • Crop modelling
  • Grain maize
  • Nitrogen
  • Wheat
  • Yield potential

Cite this

Schils, René ; Olesen, Jørgen E. ; Kersebaum, Kurt Christian ; Rijk, Bert ; Oberforster, Michael ; Kalyada, Valery ; Khitrykau, Maksim ; Gobin, Anne ; Kirchev, Hristofor ; Manolova, Vanya ; Manolov, Ivan ; Trnka, Mirek ; Hlavinka, Petr ; Paluoso, Taru ; Peltonen-Sainio, Pirjo ; Jauhiainen, Lauri ; Lorgeou, Josiane ; Marrou, Hélène ; Danalatos, Nikos ; Archontoulis, Sotirios ; Fodor, Nándor ; Spink, John ; Roggero, Pier Paolo ; Bassu, Simona ; Pulina, Antonio ; Seehusen, Till ; Uhlen, Anne Kjersti ; Żyłowska, Katarzyna ; Nieróbca, Anna ; Kozyra, Jerzy ; Silva, João Vasco ; Maçãs, Benvindo Martins ; Coutinho, José ; Ion, Viorel ; Takáč, Jozef ; Mínguez, M.I. ; Eckersten, Henrik ; Levy, Lilia ; Herrera, Juan Manuel ; Hiltbrunner, Jürg ; Kryvobok, Oleksii ; Kryvoshein, Oleksandr ; Boogaard, Hendrik ; de Groot, Hugo ; Lesschen, Jan Peter ; van Bussel, Lenny ; Wolf, Joost ; Zijlstra, Mink ; van Loon, Marloes P. ; van Ittersum, Martin K. / Cereal yield gaps across Europe. In: European Journal of Agronomy. 2018 ; Vol. 101. pp. 109-120.
@article{a2278d6c38d64c5ea107d74187a0c554,
title = "Cereal yield gaps across Europe",
abstract = "Europe accounts for around 20{\%} of the global cereal production and is a net exporter of ca. 15{\%} of that production. Increasing global demand for cereals justifies questions as to where and by how much Europe's production can be increased to meet future global market demands, and how much additional nitrogen (N) crops would require. The latter is important as environmental concern and legislation are equally important as production aims in Europe. Here, we used a country-by-country, bottom-up approach to establish statistical estimates of actual grain yield, and compare these to modelled estimates of potential yields for either irrigated or rainfed conditions. In this way, we identified the yield gaps and the opportunities for increased cereal production for wheat, barley and maize, which represent 90{\%} of the cereals grown in Europe. The combined mean annual yield gap of wheat, barley, maize was 239 Mt, or 42{\%} of the yield potential. The national yield gaps ranged between 10 and 70{\%}, with small gaps in many north-western European countries, and large gaps in eastern and south-western Europe. Yield gaps for rainfed and irrigated maize were consistently lower than those of wheat and barley. If the yield gaps of maize, wheat and barley would be reduced from 42{\%} to 20{\%} of potential yields, this would increase annual cereal production by 128 Mt (39{\%}). Potential for higher cereal production exists predominantly in Eastern Europe, and half of Europe's potential increase is located in Ukraine, Romania and Poland. Unlocking the identified potential for production growth requires a substantial increase of the crop N uptake of 4.8 Mt. Across Europe, the average N uptake gaps, to achieve 80{\%} of the yield potential, were 87, 77 and 43 kg N ha−1 for wheat, barley and maize, respectively. Emphasis on increasing the N use efficiency is necessary to minimize the need for additional N inputs. Whether yield gap reduction is desirable and feasible is a matter of balancing Europe's role in global food security, farm economic objectives and environmental targets.",
keywords = "Barley, Crop modelling, Grain maize, Nitrogen, Wheat, Yield potential",
author = "Ren{\'e} Schils and Olesen, {J{\o}rgen E.} and Kersebaum, {Kurt Christian} and Bert Rijk and Michael Oberforster and Valery Kalyada and Maksim Khitrykau and Anne Gobin and Hristofor Kirchev and Vanya Manolova and Ivan Manolov and Mirek Trnka and Petr Hlavinka and Taru Paluoso and Pirjo Peltonen-Sainio and Lauri Jauhiainen and Josiane Lorgeou and H{\'e}l{\`e}ne Marrou and Nikos Danalatos and Sotirios Archontoulis and N{\'a}ndor Fodor and John Spink and Roggero, {Pier Paolo} and Simona Bassu and Antonio Pulina and Till Seehusen and Uhlen, {Anne Kjersti} and Katarzyna Żyłowska and Anna Nier{\'o}bca and Jerzy Kozyra and Silva, {Jo{\~a}o Vasco} and Ma{\cc}{\~a}s, {Benvindo Martins} and Jos{\'e} Coutinho and Viorel Ion and Jozef Tak{\'a}č and M.I. M{\'i}nguez and Henrik Eckersten and Lilia Levy and Herrera, {Juan Manuel} and J{\"u}rg Hiltbrunner and Oleksii Kryvobok and Oleksandr Kryvoshein and Hendrik Boogaard and {de Groot}, Hugo and Lesschen, {Jan Peter} and {van Bussel}, Lenny and Joost Wolf and Mink Zijlstra and {van Loon}, {Marloes P.} and {van Ittersum}, {Martin K.}",
year = "2018",
month = "11",
doi = "10.1016/j.eja.2018.09.003",
language = "English",
volume = "101",
pages = "109--120",
journal = "European Journal of Agronomy",
issn = "1161-0301",
publisher = "Elsevier",

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Schils, R, Olesen, JE, Kersebaum, KC, Rijk, B, Oberforster, M, Kalyada, V, Khitrykau, M, Gobin, A, Kirchev, H, Manolova, V, Manolov, I, Trnka, M, Hlavinka, P, Paluoso, T, Peltonen-Sainio, P, Jauhiainen, L, Lorgeou, J, Marrou, H, Danalatos, N, Archontoulis, S, Fodor, N, Spink, J, Roggero, PP, Bassu, S, Pulina, A, Seehusen, T, Uhlen, AK, Żyłowska, K, Nieróbca, A, Kozyra, J, Silva, JV, Maçãs, BM, Coutinho, J, Ion, V, Takáč, J, Mínguez, MI, Eckersten, H, Levy, L, Herrera, JM, Hiltbrunner, J, Kryvobok, O, Kryvoshein, O, Boogaard, H, de Groot, H, Lesschen, JP, van Bussel, L, Wolf, J, Zijlstra, M, van Loon, MP & van Ittersum, MK 2018, 'Cereal yield gaps across Europe' European Journal of Agronomy, vol. 101, pp. 109-120. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2018.09.003

Cereal yield gaps across Europe. / Schils, René; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Kersebaum, Kurt Christian; Rijk, Bert; Oberforster, Michael; Kalyada, Valery; Khitrykau, Maksim; Gobin, Anne; Kirchev, Hristofor; Manolova, Vanya; Manolov, Ivan; Trnka, Mirek; Hlavinka, Petr; Paluoso, Taru; Peltonen-Sainio, Pirjo; Jauhiainen, Lauri; Lorgeou, Josiane; Marrou, Hélène; Danalatos, Nikos; Archontoulis, Sotirios; Fodor, Nándor; Spink, John; Roggero, Pier Paolo; Bassu, Simona; Pulina, Antonio; Seehusen, Till; Uhlen, Anne Kjersti; Żyłowska, Katarzyna; Nieróbca, Anna; Kozyra, Jerzy; Silva, João Vasco; Maçãs, Benvindo Martins; Coutinho, José; Ion, Viorel; Takáč, Jozef; Mínguez, M.I.; Eckersten, Henrik; Levy, Lilia; Herrera, Juan Manuel; Hiltbrunner, Jürg; Kryvobok, Oleksii; Kryvoshein, Oleksandr; Boogaard, Hendrik; de Groot, Hugo; Lesschen, Jan Peter; van Bussel, Lenny; Wolf, Joost; Zijlstra, Mink; van Loon, Marloes P.; van Ittersum, Martin K.

In: European Journal of Agronomy, Vol. 101, 11.2018, p. 109-120.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Cereal yield gaps across Europe

AU - Schils, René

AU - Olesen, Jørgen E.

AU - Kersebaum, Kurt Christian

AU - Rijk, Bert

AU - Oberforster, Michael

AU - Kalyada, Valery

AU - Khitrykau, Maksim

AU - Gobin, Anne

AU - Kirchev, Hristofor

AU - Manolova, Vanya

AU - Manolov, Ivan

AU - Trnka, Mirek

AU - Hlavinka, Petr

AU - Paluoso, Taru

AU - Peltonen-Sainio, Pirjo

AU - Jauhiainen, Lauri

AU - Lorgeou, Josiane

AU - Marrou, Hélène

AU - Danalatos, Nikos

AU - Archontoulis, Sotirios

AU - Fodor, Nándor

AU - Spink, John

AU - Roggero, Pier Paolo

AU - Bassu, Simona

AU - Pulina, Antonio

AU - Seehusen, Till

AU - Uhlen, Anne Kjersti

AU - Żyłowska, Katarzyna

AU - Nieróbca, Anna

AU - Kozyra, Jerzy

AU - Silva, João Vasco

AU - Maçãs, Benvindo Martins

AU - Coutinho, José

AU - Ion, Viorel

AU - Takáč, Jozef

AU - Mínguez, M.I.

AU - Eckersten, Henrik

AU - Levy, Lilia

AU - Herrera, Juan Manuel

AU - Hiltbrunner, Jürg

AU - Kryvobok, Oleksii

AU - Kryvoshein, Oleksandr

AU - Boogaard, Hendrik

AU - de Groot, Hugo

AU - Lesschen, Jan Peter

AU - van Bussel, Lenny

AU - Wolf, Joost

AU - Zijlstra, Mink

AU - van Loon, Marloes P.

AU - van Ittersum, Martin K.

PY - 2018/11

Y1 - 2018/11

N2 - Europe accounts for around 20% of the global cereal production and is a net exporter of ca. 15% of that production. Increasing global demand for cereals justifies questions as to where and by how much Europe's production can be increased to meet future global market demands, and how much additional nitrogen (N) crops would require. The latter is important as environmental concern and legislation are equally important as production aims in Europe. Here, we used a country-by-country, bottom-up approach to establish statistical estimates of actual grain yield, and compare these to modelled estimates of potential yields for either irrigated or rainfed conditions. In this way, we identified the yield gaps and the opportunities for increased cereal production for wheat, barley and maize, which represent 90% of the cereals grown in Europe. The combined mean annual yield gap of wheat, barley, maize was 239 Mt, or 42% of the yield potential. The national yield gaps ranged between 10 and 70%, with small gaps in many north-western European countries, and large gaps in eastern and south-western Europe. Yield gaps for rainfed and irrigated maize were consistently lower than those of wheat and barley. If the yield gaps of maize, wheat and barley would be reduced from 42% to 20% of potential yields, this would increase annual cereal production by 128 Mt (39%). Potential for higher cereal production exists predominantly in Eastern Europe, and half of Europe's potential increase is located in Ukraine, Romania and Poland. Unlocking the identified potential for production growth requires a substantial increase of the crop N uptake of 4.8 Mt. Across Europe, the average N uptake gaps, to achieve 80% of the yield potential, were 87, 77 and 43 kg N ha−1 for wheat, barley and maize, respectively. Emphasis on increasing the N use efficiency is necessary to minimize the need for additional N inputs. Whether yield gap reduction is desirable and feasible is a matter of balancing Europe's role in global food security, farm economic objectives and environmental targets.

AB - Europe accounts for around 20% of the global cereal production and is a net exporter of ca. 15% of that production. Increasing global demand for cereals justifies questions as to where and by how much Europe's production can be increased to meet future global market demands, and how much additional nitrogen (N) crops would require. The latter is important as environmental concern and legislation are equally important as production aims in Europe. Here, we used a country-by-country, bottom-up approach to establish statistical estimates of actual grain yield, and compare these to modelled estimates of potential yields for either irrigated or rainfed conditions. In this way, we identified the yield gaps and the opportunities for increased cereal production for wheat, barley and maize, which represent 90% of the cereals grown in Europe. The combined mean annual yield gap of wheat, barley, maize was 239 Mt, or 42% of the yield potential. The national yield gaps ranged between 10 and 70%, with small gaps in many north-western European countries, and large gaps in eastern and south-western Europe. Yield gaps for rainfed and irrigated maize were consistently lower than those of wheat and barley. If the yield gaps of maize, wheat and barley would be reduced from 42% to 20% of potential yields, this would increase annual cereal production by 128 Mt (39%). Potential for higher cereal production exists predominantly in Eastern Europe, and half of Europe's potential increase is located in Ukraine, Romania and Poland. Unlocking the identified potential for production growth requires a substantial increase of the crop N uptake of 4.8 Mt. Across Europe, the average N uptake gaps, to achieve 80% of the yield potential, were 87, 77 and 43 kg N ha−1 for wheat, barley and maize, respectively. Emphasis on increasing the N use efficiency is necessary to minimize the need for additional N inputs. Whether yield gap reduction is desirable and feasible is a matter of balancing Europe's role in global food security, farm economic objectives and environmental targets.

KW - Barley

KW - Crop modelling

KW - Grain maize

KW - Nitrogen

KW - Wheat

KW - Yield potential

U2 - 10.1016/j.eja.2018.09.003

DO - 10.1016/j.eja.2018.09.003

M3 - Article

VL - 101

SP - 109

EP - 120

JO - European Journal of Agronomy

JF - European Journal of Agronomy

SN - 1161-0301

ER -

Schils R, Olesen JE, Kersebaum KC, Rijk B, Oberforster M, Kalyada V et al. Cereal yield gaps across Europe. European Journal of Agronomy. 2018 Nov;101:109-120. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2018.09.003