Beleidsscenario’s voor klimaatmitigatie in landbouw en landgebruik : resultaten voor de AFOLU-sector in 2035

In this study policy scenarios were constructed that provide insight in the potential for greenhouse gas emission reduction in the agriculture and land use sectors in 2035. The four scenarios are: 1) reference (KEV 2022), 2) only public governance, pessimistic, 3) only public governance, optimistic, and 4) Scenario 3 + additional private governance. For each policy scenario an estimate was made of the uptake of climate change mitigation measures. Results show that emissions from agriculture and land use will decrease by 14% (Scenario 2) to 39% (Scenario 4) in 2035 compared to the reference scenario. The economic analysis shows that the loss of net added value is larger at the supplying and processing industry compared to the primary agriculture sector. The scenarios also show benefits in terms of avoided environmental damage (1.6 to 2.8 billion euro per year). The net costs of the measures (5.4 to 8.5 billion euro per year) are nevertheless higher than the benefits of avoided environmental damage.