Behavioral Adaptations in Tropical Dairy Cows: Insights into Calving Day Predictions

This study examined changes in the activity patterns of tropical dairy cows during the transition period to assess their potential for predicting calving days. This study used the AfiTag-II biosensor to monitor activity, rest time, rest per bout, and restlessness ratio in 298 prepartum and 347 postpartum Holstein Friesian cows across three lactation groups (1, 2, and ≥3). The data were analyzed using generalized linear mixed models in SPSS, and five machine learning models, including random forest, decision tree, gradient boosting, Naïve Bayes, and neural networks, were used to predict the calving day, with their performance evaluated via ROC curves and AUC metrics. For all lactations, activity levels peak on the calving day, followed by a gradual return to prepartum levels within two weeks. First-lactation cows displayed the shortest rest duration, with a prepartum rest time of 568.8 ± 5.4 (mean ± SE), which is significantly lower than higher-lactation animals. The random forest and gradient boosting displayed an effective performance, achieving AUCs of 85% and 83%, respectively. These results indicate that temporal changes in activity behavior have the potential to be a useful indicator for calving day prediction, particularly in tropical climates where seasonal variations can obscure traditional prepartum indicators.