Attribution of global lake systems change to anthropogenic forcing

Luke Grant*, Inne Vanderkelen, Lukas Gudmundsson, Zeli Tan, Marjorie Perroud, Victor M. Stepanenko, Andrey V. Debolskiy, Bram Droppers, Annette B.G. Janssen, R. Iestyn Woolway, Margarita Choulga, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Georgiy Kirillin, Jacob Schewe, Fang Zhao, Iliusi Vega del Valle, Malgorzata Golub, Don Pierson, Rafael Marcé, Sonia I. SeneviratneWim Thiery

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

91 Citations (Scopus)


Lake ecosystems are jeopardized by the impacts of climate change on ice seasonality and water temperatures. Yet historical simulations have not been used to formally attribute changes in lake ice and temperature to anthropogenic drivers. In addition, future projections of these properties are limited to individual lakes or global simulations from single lake models. Here we uncover the human imprint on lakes worldwide using hindcasts and projections from five lake models. Reanalysed trends in lake temperature and ice cover in recent decades are extremely unlikely to be explained by pre-industrial climate variability alone. Ice-cover trends in reanalysis are consistent with lake model simulations under historical conditions, providing attribution of lake changes to anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, lake temperature, ice thickness and duration scale robustly with global mean air temperature across future climate scenarios (+0.9 °C °Cair–1, –0.033 m °Cair–1 and –9.7 d °Cair–1, respectively). These impacts would profoundly alter the functioning of lake ecosystems and the services they provide.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)849-854
JournalNature Geoscience
Issue number11
Early online date18 Oct 2021
Publication statusPublished - 2021


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