Aspiration Adaptation, Poverty, and Agricultural Management: An Agent-Based Modelling Study

To design more efficient and equitable agricultural technologies and policies, we need to understand why individuals do not act in line with the expectations of researchers and policy makers, and we need to understand how and why interventions exacerbate existing inequalities. Both can be understood by exploring how aspirations influence households’ future-oriented behaviour. This paper does so by introducing the 3spire model, which integrates three aspirational dimensions: income, food self-sufficiency, and leisure, and by examining how aspirations adapt, shift and influence households’ behaviour over time. The 3spire model incorporates aspiration adaptation theory to simulate agents’ farm management decisions and performance over time. Agents, representing farming households, interact within a social network and consider alternative plans iteratively, choosing the first satisficing plan. Preliminary findings indicated that initial wealth influenced aspiration dynamics. There was, however, great heterogeneity in these aspiration dynamics, also among households with similar levels of initial wealth, suggesting additional factors at play. Further research should investigate other types of non-monetary wealth and incorporate context-specific data to inform targeted policies and interventions, fostering equitable rural development, and reducing poverty and inequality.