Are the G20 economies making enough progress to meet their NDC targets?

Michel den Elzen, Takeshi Kuramochi, Niklas Höhne, Jasmin Cantzler, Kendall Esmeijer, Hanna Fekete, Taryn Fransen, Kimon Keramidas, Mark Roelfsema, Fu Sha, Heleen van Soest, Toon Vandyck

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Under the Paris Agreement, countries committed to a variety of climate actions, including post-2020 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets. This study compares projected GHG emissions in the G20 economies under current climate policies to those under the GHG targets outlined in the nationally determined contributions (NDCs). It is based on an assessment of official governmental estimates and independent national and global studies. The study concludes that six G20 members (China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Russia and Turkey) are projected to meet their unconditional NDC targets with current policies. Eight members (Argentina, Australia, Canada, the European Union, Republic of Korea, South Africa and the United States) require further action to achieve their targets. Insufficient information is available for Saudi Arabia, and emission projections for Brazil and Mexico are subject to considerable uncertainty. The study also presents high-level decarbonisation indicators to better understand the current progress towards meeting the NDCs – Saudi Arabia and South Africa were found to continue increasing both emission intensity per unit GDP and emissions per capita under current policies by 2030 from 2015 levels.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)238-250
JournalEnergy Policy
Volume126
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Mar 2019

Fingerprint

Greenhouse gases
Gas emissions
greenhouse gas
Decarbonization
Gross Domestic Product
environmental policy
European Union
economy
climate
policy
Africa

Keywords

  • China
  • G20 economies
  • National climate and energy policies
  • NDCs
  • Paris Agreement

Cite this

den Elzen, M., Kuramochi, T., Höhne, N., Cantzler, J., Esmeijer, K., Fekete, H., ... Vandyck, T. (2019). Are the G20 economies making enough progress to meet their NDC targets? Energy Policy, 126, 238-250. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.11.027
den Elzen, Michel ; Kuramochi, Takeshi ; Höhne, Niklas ; Cantzler, Jasmin ; Esmeijer, Kendall ; Fekete, Hanna ; Fransen, Taryn ; Keramidas, Kimon ; Roelfsema, Mark ; Sha, Fu ; van Soest, Heleen ; Vandyck, Toon. / Are the G20 economies making enough progress to meet their NDC targets?. In: Energy Policy. 2019 ; Vol. 126. pp. 238-250.
@article{73ff69db8dba4875ab2fa705b6b178bf,
title = "Are the G20 economies making enough progress to meet their NDC targets?",
abstract = "Under the Paris Agreement, countries committed to a variety of climate actions, including post-2020 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets. This study compares projected GHG emissions in the G20 economies under current climate policies to those under the GHG targets outlined in the nationally determined contributions (NDCs). It is based on an assessment of official governmental estimates and independent national and global studies. The study concludes that six G20 members (China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Russia and Turkey) are projected to meet their unconditional NDC targets with current policies. Eight members (Argentina, Australia, Canada, the European Union, Republic of Korea, South Africa and the United States) require further action to achieve their targets. Insufficient information is available for Saudi Arabia, and emission projections for Brazil and Mexico are subject to considerable uncertainty. The study also presents high-level decarbonisation indicators to better understand the current progress towards meeting the NDCs – Saudi Arabia and South Africa were found to continue increasing both emission intensity per unit GDP and emissions per capita under current policies by 2030 from 2015 levels.",
keywords = "China, G20 economies, National climate and energy policies, NDCs, Paris Agreement",
author = "{den Elzen}, Michel and Takeshi Kuramochi and Niklas H{\"o}hne and Jasmin Cantzler and Kendall Esmeijer and Hanna Fekete and Taryn Fransen and Kimon Keramidas and Mark Roelfsema and Fu Sha and {van Soest}, Heleen and Toon Vandyck",
year = "2019",
month = "3",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1016/j.enpol.2018.11.027",
language = "English",
volume = "126",
pages = "238--250",
journal = "Energy Policy",
issn = "0301-4215",
publisher = "Elsevier",

}

den Elzen, M, Kuramochi, T, Höhne, N, Cantzler, J, Esmeijer, K, Fekete, H, Fransen, T, Keramidas, K, Roelfsema, M, Sha, F, van Soest, H & Vandyck, T 2019, 'Are the G20 economies making enough progress to meet their NDC targets?' Energy Policy, vol. 126, pp. 238-250. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.11.027

Are the G20 economies making enough progress to meet their NDC targets? / den Elzen, Michel; Kuramochi, Takeshi; Höhne, Niklas; Cantzler, Jasmin; Esmeijer, Kendall; Fekete, Hanna; Fransen, Taryn; Keramidas, Kimon; Roelfsema, Mark; Sha, Fu; van Soest, Heleen; Vandyck, Toon.

In: Energy Policy, Vol. 126, 01.03.2019, p. 238-250.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Are the G20 economies making enough progress to meet their NDC targets?

AU - den Elzen, Michel

AU - Kuramochi, Takeshi

AU - Höhne, Niklas

AU - Cantzler, Jasmin

AU - Esmeijer, Kendall

AU - Fekete, Hanna

AU - Fransen, Taryn

AU - Keramidas, Kimon

AU - Roelfsema, Mark

AU - Sha, Fu

AU - van Soest, Heleen

AU - Vandyck, Toon

PY - 2019/3/1

Y1 - 2019/3/1

N2 - Under the Paris Agreement, countries committed to a variety of climate actions, including post-2020 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets. This study compares projected GHG emissions in the G20 economies under current climate policies to those under the GHG targets outlined in the nationally determined contributions (NDCs). It is based on an assessment of official governmental estimates and independent national and global studies. The study concludes that six G20 members (China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Russia and Turkey) are projected to meet their unconditional NDC targets with current policies. Eight members (Argentina, Australia, Canada, the European Union, Republic of Korea, South Africa and the United States) require further action to achieve their targets. Insufficient information is available for Saudi Arabia, and emission projections for Brazil and Mexico are subject to considerable uncertainty. The study also presents high-level decarbonisation indicators to better understand the current progress towards meeting the NDCs – Saudi Arabia and South Africa were found to continue increasing both emission intensity per unit GDP and emissions per capita under current policies by 2030 from 2015 levels.

AB - Under the Paris Agreement, countries committed to a variety of climate actions, including post-2020 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets. This study compares projected GHG emissions in the G20 economies under current climate policies to those under the GHG targets outlined in the nationally determined contributions (NDCs). It is based on an assessment of official governmental estimates and independent national and global studies. The study concludes that six G20 members (China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Russia and Turkey) are projected to meet their unconditional NDC targets with current policies. Eight members (Argentina, Australia, Canada, the European Union, Republic of Korea, South Africa and the United States) require further action to achieve their targets. Insufficient information is available for Saudi Arabia, and emission projections for Brazil and Mexico are subject to considerable uncertainty. The study also presents high-level decarbonisation indicators to better understand the current progress towards meeting the NDCs – Saudi Arabia and South Africa were found to continue increasing both emission intensity per unit GDP and emissions per capita under current policies by 2030 from 2015 levels.

KW - China

KW - G20 economies

KW - National climate and energy policies

KW - NDCs

KW - Paris Agreement

U2 - 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.11.027

DO - 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.11.027

M3 - Article

VL - 126

SP - 238

EP - 250

JO - Energy Policy

JF - Energy Policy

SN - 0301-4215

ER -

den Elzen M, Kuramochi T, Höhne N, Cantzler J, Esmeijer K, Fekete H et al. Are the G20 economies making enough progress to meet their NDC targets? Energy Policy. 2019 Mar 1;126:238-250. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.11.027