Are forest disturbances amplifying or canceling out climate change-induced productivity changes in European forests?

Christopher Paul Oliver Reyer, Stephan Bathgate, K. Blennow, J.G. Borges, Harald Bugmann, Sylvain Delzon, Sonia P. Faias, Jordi Garcia-Gonzalo, Barry Gardiner, J.R. Gonzalez-Olabarria, Carlos Gracia, Jordi Guerra Hernandez, Seppo Kellomaki, K. Kramer, M.J. Lexer, Marcus Lindner, Ernest van der Maaten, M. Maroschek, Bart Muys, B. Nicoll & 15 others M. Palahi, J.H.N. Palma, Joana A. Paulo, H. Peltola, T. Pukkala, W. Rammer, D. Ray, S. Sabaté, M. Schelhaas, R. Seidl, Christian Temperli, Margarida Tomé, R. Yousefpour, N.E. Zimmerman, Marc Hanewinkel

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Abstract

Recent studies projecting future climate change impacts on forests mainly consider either the effects of climate change on productivity or on disturbances. However, productivity and disturbances are intrinsically linked because 1) disturbances directly affect forest productivity (e.g. via a reduction in leaf area, growing stock or resource-use efficiency), and 2) disturbance susceptibility is often coupled to a certain development phase of the forest with productivity determining the time a forest is in this specific phase of susceptibility. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of forest productivity changes in different forest regions in Europe under climate change, and partition these changes into effects induced by climate change alone and by climate change and disturbances. We present projections of climate change impacts on forest productivity from state-of-the-art forest models that dynamically simulate forest productivity and the effects of the main European disturbance agents (fire, storm, insects), driven by the same climate scenario in seven forest case studies along a large climatic gradient throughout Europe. Our study shows that, in most cases, including disturbances in the simulations exaggerate ongoing productivity declines or cancel out productivity gains in response to climate change. In fewer cases, disturbances also increase productivity or buffer climate-change induced productivity losses, e.g. because low severity fires can alleviate resource competition and increase fertilization. Even though our results cannot simply be extrapolated to other types of forests and disturbances, we argue that it is necessary to interpret climate change-induced productivity and disturbance changes jointly to capture the full range of climate change impacts on forests and to plan adaptation measures.
Original languageEnglish
Article number034027
JournalEnvironmental Research Letters
Volume12
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2017

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Climate Change
Climate change
Productivity
disturbance
productivity
climate change
Forests
Fires
Climate
resource use
Fertilization
leaf area
Insects
Buffers
insect

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Reyer, C. P. O., Bathgate, S., Blennow, K., Borges, J. G., Bugmann, H., Delzon, S., ... Hanewinkel, M. (2017). Are forest disturbances amplifying or canceling out climate change-induced productivity changes in European forests? Environmental Research Letters, 12(3), [034027]. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5ef1
Reyer, Christopher Paul Oliver ; Bathgate, Stephan ; Blennow, K. ; Borges, J.G. ; Bugmann, Harald ; Delzon, Sylvain ; Faias, Sonia P. ; Garcia-Gonzalo, Jordi ; Gardiner, Barry ; Gonzalez-Olabarria, J.R. ; Gracia, Carlos ; Guerra Hernandez, Jordi ; Kellomaki, Seppo ; Kramer, K. ; Lexer, M.J. ; Lindner, Marcus ; van der Maaten, Ernest ; Maroschek, M. ; Muys, Bart ; Nicoll, B. ; Palahi, M. ; Palma, J.H.N. ; Paulo, Joana A. ; Peltola, H. ; Pukkala, T. ; Rammer, W. ; Ray, D. ; Sabaté, S. ; Schelhaas, M. ; Seidl, R. ; Temperli, Christian ; Tomé, Margarida ; Yousefpour, R. ; Zimmerman, N.E. ; Hanewinkel, Marc. / Are forest disturbances amplifying or canceling out climate change-induced productivity changes in European forests?. In: Environmental Research Letters. 2017 ; Vol. 12, No. 3.
@article{4924c77c486a4251abe262b7c32d4156,
title = "Are forest disturbances amplifying or canceling out climate change-induced productivity changes in European forests?",
abstract = "Recent studies projecting future climate change impacts on forests mainly consider either the effects of climate change on productivity or on disturbances. However, productivity and disturbances are intrinsically linked because 1) disturbances directly affect forest productivity (e.g. via a reduction in leaf area, growing stock or resource-use efficiency), and 2) disturbance susceptibility is often coupled to a certain development phase of the forest with productivity determining the time a forest is in this specific phase of susceptibility. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of forest productivity changes in different forest regions in Europe under climate change, and partition these changes into effects induced by climate change alone and by climate change and disturbances. We present projections of climate change impacts on forest productivity from state-of-the-art forest models that dynamically simulate forest productivity and the effects of the main European disturbance agents (fire, storm, insects), driven by the same climate scenario in seven forest case studies along a large climatic gradient throughout Europe. Our study shows that, in most cases, including disturbances in the simulations exaggerate ongoing productivity declines or cancel out productivity gains in response to climate change. In fewer cases, disturbances also increase productivity or buffer climate-change induced productivity losses, e.g. because low severity fires can alleviate resource competition and increase fertilization. Even though our results cannot simply be extrapolated to other types of forests and disturbances, we argue that it is necessary to interpret climate change-induced productivity and disturbance changes jointly to capture the full range of climate change impacts on forests and to plan adaptation measures.",
author = "Reyer, {Christopher Paul Oliver} and Stephan Bathgate and K. Blennow and J.G. Borges and Harald Bugmann and Sylvain Delzon and Faias, {Sonia P.} and Jordi Garcia-Gonzalo and Barry Gardiner and J.R. Gonzalez-Olabarria and Carlos Gracia and {Guerra Hernandez}, Jordi and Seppo Kellomaki and K. Kramer and M.J. Lexer and Marcus Lindner and {van der Maaten}, Ernest and M. Maroschek and Bart Muys and B. Nicoll and M. Palahi and J.H.N. Palma and Paulo, {Joana A.} and H. Peltola and T. Pukkala and W. Rammer and D. Ray and S. Sabat{\'e} and M. Schelhaas and R. Seidl and Christian Temperli and Margarida Tom{\'e} and R. Yousefpour and N.E. Zimmerman and Marc Hanewinkel",
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language = "English",
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journal = "Environmental Research Letters",
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Reyer, CPO, Bathgate, S, Blennow, K, Borges, JG, Bugmann, H, Delzon, S, Faias, SP, Garcia-Gonzalo, J, Gardiner, B, Gonzalez-Olabarria, JR, Gracia, C, Guerra Hernandez, J, Kellomaki, S, Kramer, K, Lexer, MJ, Lindner, M, van der Maaten, E, Maroschek, M, Muys, B, Nicoll, B, Palahi, M, Palma, JHN, Paulo, JA, Peltola, H, Pukkala, T, Rammer, W, Ray, D, Sabaté, S, Schelhaas, M, Seidl, R, Temperli, C, Tomé, M, Yousefpour, R, Zimmerman, NE & Hanewinkel, M 2017, 'Are forest disturbances amplifying or canceling out climate change-induced productivity changes in European forests?', Environmental Research Letters, vol. 12, no. 3, 034027. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5ef1

Are forest disturbances amplifying or canceling out climate change-induced productivity changes in European forests? / Reyer, Christopher Paul Oliver; Bathgate, Stephan; Blennow, K.; Borges, J.G.; Bugmann, Harald; Delzon, Sylvain; Faias, Sonia P.; Garcia-Gonzalo, Jordi; Gardiner, Barry; Gonzalez-Olabarria, J.R.; Gracia, Carlos; Guerra Hernandez, Jordi; Kellomaki, Seppo; Kramer, K.; Lexer, M.J.; Lindner, Marcus; van der Maaten, Ernest; Maroschek, M.; Muys, Bart; Nicoll, B.; Palahi, M.; Palma, J.H.N.; Paulo, Joana A.; Peltola, H.; Pukkala, T.; Rammer, W.; Ray, D.; Sabaté, S.; Schelhaas, M.; Seidl, R.; Temperli, Christian; Tomé, Margarida; Yousefpour, R.; Zimmerman, N.E.; Hanewinkel, Marc.

In: Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 12, No. 3, 034027, 2017.

Research output: Contribution to journalLetterAcademicpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Are forest disturbances amplifying or canceling out climate change-induced productivity changes in European forests?

AU - Reyer, Christopher Paul Oliver

AU - Bathgate, Stephan

AU - Blennow, K.

AU - Borges, J.G.

AU - Bugmann, Harald

AU - Delzon, Sylvain

AU - Faias, Sonia P.

AU - Garcia-Gonzalo, Jordi

AU - Gardiner, Barry

AU - Gonzalez-Olabarria, J.R.

AU - Gracia, Carlos

AU - Guerra Hernandez, Jordi

AU - Kellomaki, Seppo

AU - Kramer, K.

AU - Lexer, M.J.

AU - Lindner, Marcus

AU - van der Maaten, Ernest

AU - Maroschek, M.

AU - Muys, Bart

AU - Nicoll, B.

AU - Palahi, M.

AU - Palma, J.H.N.

AU - Paulo, Joana A.

AU - Peltola, H.

AU - Pukkala, T.

AU - Rammer, W.

AU - Ray, D.

AU - Sabaté, S.

AU - Schelhaas, M.

AU - Seidl, R.

AU - Temperli, Christian

AU - Tomé, Margarida

AU - Yousefpour, R.

AU - Zimmerman, N.E.

AU - Hanewinkel, Marc

PY - 2017

Y1 - 2017

N2 - Recent studies projecting future climate change impacts on forests mainly consider either the effects of climate change on productivity or on disturbances. However, productivity and disturbances are intrinsically linked because 1) disturbances directly affect forest productivity (e.g. via a reduction in leaf area, growing stock or resource-use efficiency), and 2) disturbance susceptibility is often coupled to a certain development phase of the forest with productivity determining the time a forest is in this specific phase of susceptibility. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of forest productivity changes in different forest regions in Europe under climate change, and partition these changes into effects induced by climate change alone and by climate change and disturbances. We present projections of climate change impacts on forest productivity from state-of-the-art forest models that dynamically simulate forest productivity and the effects of the main European disturbance agents (fire, storm, insects), driven by the same climate scenario in seven forest case studies along a large climatic gradient throughout Europe. Our study shows that, in most cases, including disturbances in the simulations exaggerate ongoing productivity declines or cancel out productivity gains in response to climate change. In fewer cases, disturbances also increase productivity or buffer climate-change induced productivity losses, e.g. because low severity fires can alleviate resource competition and increase fertilization. Even though our results cannot simply be extrapolated to other types of forests and disturbances, we argue that it is necessary to interpret climate change-induced productivity and disturbance changes jointly to capture the full range of climate change impacts on forests and to plan adaptation measures.

AB - Recent studies projecting future climate change impacts on forests mainly consider either the effects of climate change on productivity or on disturbances. However, productivity and disturbances are intrinsically linked because 1) disturbances directly affect forest productivity (e.g. via a reduction in leaf area, growing stock or resource-use efficiency), and 2) disturbance susceptibility is often coupled to a certain development phase of the forest with productivity determining the time a forest is in this specific phase of susceptibility. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of forest productivity changes in different forest regions in Europe under climate change, and partition these changes into effects induced by climate change alone and by climate change and disturbances. We present projections of climate change impacts on forest productivity from state-of-the-art forest models that dynamically simulate forest productivity and the effects of the main European disturbance agents (fire, storm, insects), driven by the same climate scenario in seven forest case studies along a large climatic gradient throughout Europe. Our study shows that, in most cases, including disturbances in the simulations exaggerate ongoing productivity declines or cancel out productivity gains in response to climate change. In fewer cases, disturbances also increase productivity or buffer climate-change induced productivity losses, e.g. because low severity fires can alleviate resource competition and increase fertilization. Even though our results cannot simply be extrapolated to other types of forests and disturbances, we argue that it is necessary to interpret climate change-induced productivity and disturbance changes jointly to capture the full range of climate change impacts on forests and to plan adaptation measures.

U2 - 10.1088/1748-9326/aa5ef1

DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/aa5ef1

M3 - Letter

VL - 12

JO - Environmental Research Letters

JF - Environmental Research Letters

SN - 1748-9318

IS - 3

M1 - 034027

ER -