Analysis of the Copenhagen Accord pledges and its global climatic impacts‚ a snapshot of dissonant ambitions

J. Rogelj, C. Chen, J. Nabel, K. Macey, W. Hare, M. Schaeffer, K. Markmann, N. Höhne, K. Krogh Anderson, M. Meinshausen

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Abstract

This analysis of the Copenhagen Accord evaluates emission reduction pledges by individual countries against the Accord's climate-related objectives. Probabilistic estimates of the climatic consequences for a set of resulting multi-gas scenarios over the 21st century are calculated with a reduced complexity climate model, yielding global temperature increase and atmospheric CO2 and CO2-equivalent concentrations. Provisions for banked surplus emission allowances and credits from land use, land-use change and forestry are assessed and are shown to have the potential to lead to significant deterioration of the ambition levels implied by the pledges in 2020. This analysis demonstrates that the Copenhagen Accord and the pledges made under it represent a set of dissonant ambitions. The ambition level of the current pledges for 2020 and the lack of commonly agreed goals for 2050 place in peril the Accord's own ambition: to limit global warming to below 2 °C, and even more so for 1.5 °C, which is referenced in the Accord in association with potentially strengthening the long-term temperature goal in 2015. Due to the limited level of ambition by 2020, the ability to limit emissions afterwards to pathways consistent with either the 2 or 1.5 °C goal is likely to become less feasible
Original languageEnglish
Article number034013
JournalEnvironmental Research Letters
Volume5
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2010

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Climate
Land use
Global Warming
Climate models
Forestry
Temperature
twenty first century
Global warming
land use change
Deterioration
global warming
climate modeling
forestry
Gases
temperature
Association reactions
land use
climate
gas
analysis

Keywords

  • ocean acidification
  • gas emissions
  • stabilization
  • targets

Cite this

Rogelj, J. ; Chen, C. ; Nabel, J. ; Macey, K. ; Hare, W. ; Schaeffer, M. ; Markmann, K. ; Höhne, N. ; Krogh Anderson, K. ; Meinshausen, M. / Analysis of the Copenhagen Accord pledges and its global climatic impacts‚ a snapshot of dissonant ambitions. In: Environmental Research Letters. 2010 ; Vol. 5, No. 3.
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Rogelj, J, Chen, C, Nabel, J, Macey, K, Hare, W, Schaeffer, M, Markmann, K, Höhne, N, Krogh Anderson, K & Meinshausen, M 2010, 'Analysis of the Copenhagen Accord pledges and its global climatic impacts‚ a snapshot of dissonant ambitions', Environmental Research Letters, vol. 5, no. 3, 034013. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/5/3/034013

Analysis of the Copenhagen Accord pledges and its global climatic impacts‚ a snapshot of dissonant ambitions. / Rogelj, J.; Chen, C.; Nabel, J.; Macey, K.; Hare, W.; Schaeffer, M.; Markmann, K.; Höhne, N.; Krogh Anderson, K.; Meinshausen, M.

In: Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 5, No. 3, 034013, 2010.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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AU - Chen, C.

AU - Nabel, J.

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AU - Hare, W.

AU - Schaeffer, M.

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