Abstract
In this paper we focus on potato late blight control in the Netherlands to analyse the social-ecological interactions between farmer behaviour and disease dynamics. An agent-based model was developed to analyse the use of crop resistance for sustainable disease control. The framework on farmers’ decision-making was based on a behavioural theory and supported by data from literature and interviews with Dutch potato farmers. This framework was integrated with a previously developed spatially explicit model on potato late blight dynamics. We assumed a scenario where a new resistant potato variety was introduced to the market. The model reproduced a boom-and-bust cycle: the percentage of farmers growing the resistant variety increased until resistance breakdown occurred by emergence and spread of a virulent strain, and in response farmers switched to other potato varieties and management strategies. Several factors and processes were identified that could contribute to the development of sustainable disease management strategies.
| Language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages | 354-373 |
| Journal | Environmental Modelling and Software |
| Volume | 119 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - Sep 2019 |
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Keywords
- Consumat
- Phytophthora infestans
- Resistance management
- Social-ecological systems
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Analysing social-ecological interactions in disease control: An agent-based model on farmers’ decision making and potato late blight dynamics. / Pacilly, Francine C.A.; Hofstede, Gert Jan; Lammerts van Bueren, Edith T.; Groot, Jeroen C.J.
In: Environmental Modelling and Software, Vol. 119, 09.2019, p. 354-373.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review
TY - JOUR
T1 - Analysing social-ecological interactions in disease control: An agent-based model on farmers’ decision making and potato late blight dynamics
AU - Pacilly, Francine C.A.
AU - Hofstede, Gert Jan
AU - Lammerts van Bueren, Edith T.
AU - Groot, Jeroen C.J.
PY - 2019/9
Y1 - 2019/9
N2 - In this paper we focus on potato late blight control in the Netherlands to analyse the social-ecological interactions between farmer behaviour and disease dynamics. An agent-based model was developed to analyse the use of crop resistance for sustainable disease control. The framework on farmers’ decision-making was based on a behavioural theory and supported by data from literature and interviews with Dutch potato farmers. This framework was integrated with a previously developed spatially explicit model on potato late blight dynamics. We assumed a scenario where a new resistant potato variety was introduced to the market. The model reproduced a boom-and-bust cycle: the percentage of farmers growing the resistant variety increased until resistance breakdown occurred by emergence and spread of a virulent strain, and in response farmers switched to other potato varieties and management strategies. Several factors and processes were identified that could contribute to the development of sustainable disease management strategies.
AB - In this paper we focus on potato late blight control in the Netherlands to analyse the social-ecological interactions between farmer behaviour and disease dynamics. An agent-based model was developed to analyse the use of crop resistance for sustainable disease control. The framework on farmers’ decision-making was based on a behavioural theory and supported by data from literature and interviews with Dutch potato farmers. This framework was integrated with a previously developed spatially explicit model on potato late blight dynamics. We assumed a scenario where a new resistant potato variety was introduced to the market. The model reproduced a boom-and-bust cycle: the percentage of farmers growing the resistant variety increased until resistance breakdown occurred by emergence and spread of a virulent strain, and in response farmers switched to other potato varieties and management strategies. Several factors and processes were identified that could contribute to the development of sustainable disease management strategies.
KW - Consumat
KW - Phytophthora infestans
KW - Resistance management
KW - Social-ecological systems
U2 - 10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.06.016
DO - 10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.06.016
M3 - Article
VL - 119
SP - 354
EP - 373
JO - Environmental Modelling & Software
T2 - Environmental Modelling & Software
JF - Environmental Modelling & Software
SN - 1364-8152
ER -