Analysing social-ecological interactions in disease control: An agent-based model on farmers’ decision making and potato late blight dynamics

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Abstract

In this paper we focus on potato late blight control in the Netherlands to analyse the social-ecological interactions between farmer behaviour and disease dynamics. An agent-based model was developed to analyse the use of crop resistance for sustainable disease control. The framework on farmers’ decision-making was based on a behavioural theory and supported by data from literature and interviews with Dutch potato farmers. This framework was integrated with a previously developed spatially explicit model on potato late blight dynamics. We assumed a scenario where a new resistant potato variety was introduced to the market. The model reproduced a boom-and-bust cycle: the percentage of farmers growing the resistant variety increased until resistance breakdown occurred by emergence and spread of a virulent strain, and in response farmers switched to other potato varieties and management strategies. Several factors and processes were identified that could contribute to the development of sustainable disease management strategies.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)354-373
JournalEnvironmental Modelling and Software
Volume119
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Sep 2019

Fingerprint

Disease control
disease control
potato
Decision making
decision making
Crops
crop
market

Keywords

  • Consumat
  • Phytophthora infestans
  • Resistance management
  • Social-ecological systems

Cite this

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title = "Analysing social-ecological interactions in disease control: An agent-based model on farmers’ decision making and potato late blight dynamics",
abstract = "In this paper we focus on potato late blight control in the Netherlands to analyse the social-ecological interactions between farmer behaviour and disease dynamics. An agent-based model was developed to analyse the use of crop resistance for sustainable disease control. The framework on farmers’ decision-making was based on a behavioural theory and supported by data from literature and interviews with Dutch potato farmers. This framework was integrated with a previously developed spatially explicit model on potato late blight dynamics. We assumed a scenario where a new resistant potato variety was introduced to the market. The model reproduced a boom-and-bust cycle: the percentage of farmers growing the resistant variety increased until resistance breakdown occurred by emergence and spread of a virulent strain, and in response farmers switched to other potato varieties and management strategies. Several factors and processes were identified that could contribute to the development of sustainable disease management strategies.",
keywords = "Consumat, Phytophthora infestans, Resistance management, Social-ecological systems",
author = "Pacilly, {Francine C.A.} and Hofstede, {Gert Jan} and {Lammerts van Bueren}, {Edith T.} and Groot, {Jeroen C.J.}",
year = "2019",
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journal = "Environmental Modelling & Software",
issn = "1364-8152",
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AU - Pacilly, Francine C.A.

AU - Hofstede, Gert Jan

AU - Lammerts van Bueren, Edith T.

AU - Groot, Jeroen C.J.

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AB - In this paper we focus on potato late blight control in the Netherlands to analyse the social-ecological interactions between farmer behaviour and disease dynamics. An agent-based model was developed to analyse the use of crop resistance for sustainable disease control. The framework on farmers’ decision-making was based on a behavioural theory and supported by data from literature and interviews with Dutch potato farmers. This framework was integrated with a previously developed spatially explicit model on potato late blight dynamics. We assumed a scenario where a new resistant potato variety was introduced to the market. The model reproduced a boom-and-bust cycle: the percentage of farmers growing the resistant variety increased until resistance breakdown occurred by emergence and spread of a virulent strain, and in response farmers switched to other potato varieties and management strategies. Several factors and processes were identified that could contribute to the development of sustainable disease management strategies.

KW - Consumat

KW - Phytophthora infestans

KW - Resistance management

KW - Social-ecological systems

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DO - 10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.06.016

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