An Uncertain Fate for the EU Pig Sector: Potential Consequences of the 2019 African Swine Fever Outbreak in East Asia

The presence of African Swine Fever (ASF) and its impacts on the global pig meat market has been gaining increased attention in recent times. Although more than 2,400 ASF events have been observed across the world since 2016, none of them have had the unprecedented consequences of the current outbreak in China. In an attempt to control the disease that has been spreading through East Asia since 2018, massive slaughtering has been taking place, with important consequences for both Chinese and international pork prices. With around half of the Chinese herd having to be slaughtered, a number of questions arise with regard to the prospects for the pork market and the uncertainties about the paths that prices will follow in responding to long-term market fundamentals. This article focuses on the impact of the ASF outbreak in East Asia on the European pig sector. In particular it analyses potential global pork market developments under two different recovery paths, employing a combination of an Equilibrium Displacement Model and the AGMEMOD modelling system, to provide results at EU and global levels to 2030. Our simulation results point to a short to medium-term expansion of production capacity in response to higher market prices.